NEW YORK - In 2002, the Houston Texans began the NFL draft by choosing David Carr as their first pick ever. Then, after the Carolina Panthers took Julius Peppers, the Detroit Lions chose Joey Harrington and the Buffalo Bills picked 6-foot-8, 360-pound offensive tackle Mike Williams.

That was just the way most mock drafts had them, all four assumed to be future stars.

Six years later, Carr is a backup QB with the Giants, his third team; Harrington also is on his third team; and Williams is out of the NFL. Even Peppers, a star early, has had back-to-back bad seasons, and his former North Carolina teammate, defensive tackle Ryan Sims, taken sixth by Kansas City, is another major failure.

If the draft has become the NFL's second-most anticipated event after the Super Bowl, it's also one in which many "future Hall of Famers" turn out to be duds. These days, the increasing number of people writing, reporting and blogging about the NFL turn out mock draft after mock draft, some starting as early as the week after the Super Bowl.

Nor does analysis stop after the draft. Every team is graded instantly. The results are haphazard, of course -- no one can analyze a draft the day it happens, including the people doing the drafting.

"We're giving these guys grades, and they haven't even taken any classes or exams yet," says Bill Polian, the president of the Colts, whose success rate is as good as anyone's.

The current example is the New York Giants, whose surprise run to a title last season probably wouldn't have happened without their rookies.

Giant success

Seven of New York's rookies made contributions in the playoffs, including running back Ahmad Bradshaw, the 250th of 255 players chosen in 2007.

Yet the Giants were ranked at the bottom in many post-draft "report cards" issued immediately after last year's selections.

"We just did what we always do, evaluate everything our scouts and coaches tell us, then put it together and make a choice," says Jerry Reese, who last year wore two hats: rookie general manager and in his old job as player personnel director.

"It came out well, but there's no guarantee that the same thing will happen again. All we can do is try our best."

While the actual draft starts next Saturday at Radio City Music Hall, it is a year-round thing for the teams.

For fans and media, it starts right after the Super Bowl, even before the scouting combine. Since then, an inordinate amount of time has been spent on revising those mock drafts as players rise (Boise State offensive tackle Ryan Clady and Troy cornerback Leodis McKelvin); or fall (Oklahoma receiver Malcolm Kelly and Penn State linebacker Dan Connor); or fall, then rise again (Michigan receiver Mario Manningham).

One of the more amusing aspects is the reverence with which the potential top draft picks are portrayed.

The fact is, as that 2002 group attests, they are as likely to be busts as stars. Many will be decent players, no better than guys taken in lower rounds and often worse.

The Giants, for example, have gotten the likes of Michael Strahan, Tiki Barber, Amani Toomer and Osi Umenyiora after bad first-round picks the same year. Strahan, the 40th pick in 1993, would certainly be the first pick if that draft was redone on the basis of results.

But still we build up first-rounders like they can't miss.

Disappointments

Look at 2002. Or 2005, when the top 10 were, in order: Alex Smith, Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards, Cedric Benson, Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, Adam "Pacman" Jones, Troy Williamson, Antrell Rolle, Carlos Rogers and Mike Williams.

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