Midway through an exceptionally dry winter, with Falls Lake more than half-empty, water managers are starting to voice the once-unthinkable: Raleigh's drought-ravaged reservoir could go dry this year.

Federal engineers who manage the reservoir have assessed the lake's unprecedented low winter level, the expected demand and forecasts of continuing drought and concluded that the once sprawling body of water could disappear as early as this summer.

If current weather and use patterns continue, the city's designated share of Falls Lake could be depleted in June or July, according to a new Army Corps of Engineers report. Tapping the lake's surplus layer of bottom water could extend the supply anywhere from several weeks to two or three months.

After that, barring unexpectedly heavy rains or a drenching tropical storm, Falls Lake could be a dusty moonscape by late summer or fall. All that would remain would be the shriveled thread of the Neuse River.

"That's a possibility that people should be aware of," said Terry Brown, senior water control manager at the Corps office in Wilmington, which manages Falls Lake. He showed his projection last week to dozens of state and local officials, including Raleigh's water managers.

Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker said the Corps' prediction should spur the city to new action.

"It's certainly a discouraging forecast," Meeker said. "The Corps' comments reflect how serious a situation we face, and how important it is for everyone to conserve as much as they can right now. We're trying to react early instead of waiting until the water-supply pool is exhausted."

The vision of one of North Carolina's biggest lakes going dry is startling. Less than a year ago, the brimming 25-year-old reservoir spread over more than 12,000 acres. Boats skimmed across its surface, swimmers dived into its depths, and more water was flowing into it than going out.

Then North Carolina's worst recorded drought, sizzling summer heat, and heavy water consumption sucked the lake down to record depths: 10 feet below normal on Christmas Day.

Record low levels

The lake, which supplies water for Raleigh and several Wake County towns, rebounded a bit at year's end and now is down about 8 1/2 feet. Still, since the drought began in May, the lake has shrunk to half its normal area and less than half its volume.

Raleigh's water-supply portion of the lake is down still more, to about 30 percent.

And the heavy winter rains that normally pour into the lake have hardly come. Meteorologists say a periodic dry, warm weather pattern called La Nina, which emerged in the fall, is to blame. After an arid fall and a wet December, January was the fifth-driest at Falls Lake in 80 years of records.

At a time when the lake should be refilling, it's barely holding steady at half-empty.

When spring and summer bring higher temperatures, likely without much more rain, the lake's level will plummet again, according to the Corps' projection.

"People need to be prepared to see an accelerated drawdown, because we're at lower levels with less volume," Brown said.

Even in past droughts, the reservoir has never been anywhere near this low in February. The previous record low for this month was in 1992, when the lake was more than 6 1/2 feet higher than now.

"The next eight weeks are critical, and they're getting more critical as each day goes by," Brown said.

'Uncharted territory'

Weather forecasts call for the next three months to remain drier than normal across North Carolina. Then summer's searing return is expected to intensify the drought.

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