Under the Dome

Tillis leads May ballot, McCrory an issue in November, polls find

A conservative think tank is polling a interesting question for the November election in North Carolina: Will Gov. Pat McCrory help or hurt legislative Republicans?

In the Civitas Institute’s March poll, just recently released, it asked a message testing question whether voters wanted a Republican legislator who would “support” McCrory’s agenda or a Democrat who would “balance” the Republican governor. The answer: a Democrat.

By a 51 percent to 38 percent margin, registered North Carolina voters picked a candidate who would add balance to the governor. The Democratic margin increased 6 percentage points from when Civitas asked the question in January, even though the Republican number remained constant.

Overall, the poll – conducted by GOP firm National Research –gave McCrory a split approval rating at 48 percent approval to 46 percent disapprove, within the plus-or-minus 4 percent margin of error. His favorability rating was likewise divided, but the other way at 44 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable. The numbers are more positive for McCrory than other recent polls showing his approval underwater.

Another poll commissioned by Civitas, conducted by SurveyUSA, looked at likely Republican voters ahead of the May 6 primary.

Like other ( here and here) recent SurveyUSA polls conducted at roughly the same time, it found Thom Tillis with a solid lead. Tillis received 27 percent support to 13 percent for Greg Brannon and 9 percent for Mark Harris. (It also essentially reflects a poll the pro-Tillis super PAC American Crossroads conducted.)

In the Supreme Court race, the poll found Eric Levinson, Robin Hudson and Jeanette Doran all knotted with little support and 70 percent undecided. The margin or error for the primary polling is roughly plus-or-minus 5 percent.

One more interesting finding: More than half likely GOP primary voters consider themselves supporters of the tea party. See more results here.