A tropical storm or hurricane could form in the Gulf next week. How it could affect NC
A tropical depression is likely to form in the Caribbean Sea this weekend or early next week, with the potential to become a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the following weekend, forecasters say.
Once a discernible center develops, meteorologists will have a better idea of where the storm will go. Meanwhile, there is potential for effects from Florida’s Gulf Coast to the East Coast from Florida through Georgia, South Carolina and to the North Carolina Outer Banks.
There are two other disturbances in the tropics as well — one in the northeastern Caribbean and one in the northern Atlantic — but meteorologists say even if those develop into tropical storms, they’re unlikely to affect the U.S.
Could this become Tropical Storm Patty?
Any of the three disturbances now in the Atlantic could develop into the 16th named storm of the season, but meteorologists say the one in the eastern Caribbean has the greatest chance.
On Friday, Nov. 1, the National Hurricane Center said a broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean had a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days.
Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert for AccuWeather, said Friday that as the low-pressure system moves west conditions will become increasingly favorable for storm development. Wind shear that has been suppressing storms in the Gulf is moving north, DaSilva said, and waters in the southern Gulf are in the mid-80s, 2 to 4 degrees above average for this time of year.
Warm water can act as fuel for tropical storms.
How soon would a storm develop? Could it become a hurricane?
DaSilva said development is likely to happen once the system reaches the western Caribbean, between Sunday and Tuesday.
“It would not shock me if towards the middle or the end of next week, we have a hurricane somewhere in the western Caribbean,” DaSilva said Friday. “We may well have a topical storm or even a hurricane next Wednesday somewhere between the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.”
How would the storm affect North Carolina?
Once it forms, DaSilva said, he sees to possible scenarios:
▪ If the high-pressure system that has been bringing mostly warm, dry weather to the East Coast remains strong, it likely would push a Gulf storm to the west toward Mexico. In that case, any effect on the U.S. would be minimal.
▪ If the high pressure weakens and moves slightly east, DaSilva said, it could allow a Gulf storm to move north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
If the storm then went toward the Florida Panhandle, where the Gulf waters have cooled, it would not be as strong a storm when it comes ashore, possibly sometime next weekend. However, it could generate considerable rain, some of which could reach as far as North Carolina.
“But we’re not talking about anything extreme or catastrophic,” DaSilva said.
If it moved toward the south of Florida, where the Gulf is still seeing record warmth, it could be a more powerful storm, DaSilva said, but would be less likely to have a significant effect on North Carolina.
What’s the weather forecast for Election Day?
The high-pressure system that has brought North Carolina warm, dry weather still will be in place on Election Day, Nov. 5.
This story was originally published November 1, 2024 at 1:45 PM.
