To move forward, the Hurricanes may need to go against the principles that got them this far
It’s not quite destroying the village in order to save it, but to take the next step — to be able to get past teams like the Boston Bruins in the postseason — the Carolina Hurricanes are going to have to at least consider going against everything that got them this far.
They ignored the warning signs last summer. Will they pay attention now?
They have, in two-plus seasons under Tom Dundon’s ownership, been far ahead of the curve in the NHL when it comes to analytics. Dundon inherited Eric Tulsky from the previous regime and has given him a strong voice, to the Hurricanes’ benefit. The pursuit of skill has been all-encompassing, and it has worked. Even in the Bruins series, the Hurricanes’ metrics weren’t that far behind; scoring chances at even strength narrowly favored the Bruins, 119-112. (All advanced stats via the indispensable Natural Stat Trick.)
But there was obviously a huge gap despite the close scores and scoring chances, no more apparent than the Hurricanes’ collapse in the third period of Game 4. And the truly pivotal moment that sent things over the edge was Charlie McAvoy’s punishing hit that sent Hurricanes captain Jordan Staal to the locker room for good. Mere seconds later the Bruins made it 2-2 and never really slowed down.
When things got real, when it was time to put their bodies on the line, the Hurricanes cowered.
The Bruins have the ability to put teams to that test, as did the Washington Capitals a year ago. The Hurricanes not only lack that ability, they lack the capability to respond to it.
The Hurricanes shrugged off the Capitals by doing things their own way, by relying on Petr Mrazek and taking advantage of Washington’s shabby defensive group, but there was a flashing light over that series that the Hurricanes needed to be better equipped to meet that kind of challenge. The Bruins made that clear two rounds later, and again 16 months later, pushing the envelope with the officials and leaving the Hurricanes to complain about it.
(That’s part of playoff hockey, too. Two years in a row, the Hurricanes lost their cool against Boston instead of finding an answer on the ice as they did against Washington.)
The Hurricanes have exquisite skill and a modern, mobile defense that is as versatile as any in the league, especially with the sorely missed Brett Pesce back and healthy. Jaccob Slavin’s all-around game covers up Dougie Hamilton’s deficiencies and lets Dougie be Dougie, and Brady Skjei and Pesce promise to be a solid second pairing next season. But with Joel Edmundson likely to leave as a free agent and a third pairing of Jake Gardiner and Hadyn Fleury — as much progress as Fleury made playing with an edge, he was starting from absolute zero — there’s no one who inspires any trepidation.
Contrast that with how the Bruins’ defense, particularly McAvoy and Zdeno Chara and Brandon Carlo, played against the Hurricanes, defending the front of the Boston net. At even strength, the Bruins outscored the Hurricanes 9-8. One of the Hurricanes’ goals came from the faceoff dots and below. All but one of the Bruins’ did.
Which is a neat segue to the Hurricanes’ forwards. Andrei Svechnikov did his thing until he got hurt doing it, but where were Brock McGinn and Warren Foegele and Nino Niederreiter when things got tough? Even when Foegele was successfully agitating last year, he was visibly uncomfortable in that role. Niederreiter has more skill, but if he’s not scoring goals, and he’s so streaky that can be true for long periods of time, he has to find another way to contribute. The Bruins have several bottom-six forwards who can.
So the question is whether the Hurricanes can find players who are analytically acceptable but better suited for playoff hockey — how many Jordan Martinooks are both out there and available? — or whether they’ll have to compromise their principles in one area to address the other.
They certainly didn’t do enough a year ago: Only Edmundson fit that bill. The additions of Ryan Dzingel and Gardiner and arrival of Martin Necas skewed the other direction. Same for Skjei, Sami Vatanen and Vincent Trocheck at the deadline, although Skjei set the tone for the qualifying round sweep of the New York Rangers with a crushing center-ice hit in the opening seconds.
The Hurricanes have another chance now. Their young skill players will only get better. Can they build some orneriness and determination around them? That’s tougher to quantify than expected goals or zone entries but valuable in its own way.
In no way is this an anti-analytics polemic, given the amount of useful insight that can be gleaned from NHL play-by-play data or proprietary analysis. These may be hockey cliches, “the dirty areas” and “a heavy game,” but there is a kernel of truth to them. They may not mean everything, and they mean nothing without the kind of elite skill the Hurricanes have, but they mean something.
To address those areas is not a repudiation of the project. It’s a statement of how far the Hurricanes have come.
Given the state of the franchise under the stuck-in-place regime of Ron Francis and Bill Peters, not to mention the previous decade in general, building a team consistently worthy of a playoff spot is no small accomplishment. Rod Brind’Amour has personally instilled a degree of will that was previously lacking.
If this is only to be the beginning, they need to find players who can help them take the next step forward, whether that’s by the numbers or not.
This story was originally published August 21, 2020 at 1:21 PM.
