As NC coronavirus cases keep rising, studies try to predict what’s next for the state
As coronavirus case counts reached the 3,000 benchmark in North Carolina on Monday, new studies offered projections for what North Carolina may expect over the coming weeks and months.
A revised projection from the University of Washington indicates that curve-flattening measures taken by state and local governments may help lessen the impact in North Carolina, with a report now projecting that about 500 people will die from COVID-19 in North Carolina. That’s down from the more than 2,400 they predicted a week and a half ago.
Those projections are based on the scenario that the state extends social-distancing measures through May. North Carolina’s current stay-at-home order is in effect through April 29.
That University of Washington report also predicts that the outbreak will peak here in the middle of April instead of late April, and that the state has enough hospital beds to handle this new projection.
Another report, unveiled Monday by scientists from Duke and UNC-Chapel Hill, suggests that without extending the curve-flattening measures currently in place, cases could increase dramatically.
The predictive model says the virus could infect as many as 750,000 people in North Carolina by the end of May if social distancing policies are not extended past April.
If the social-distancing is extended through May, the model — which is actually a composite of three models — predicts that 250,000 people in North Carolina could be infected.
The report was the result of work by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina, Duke University, NoviSci, RTI International and the University of North Carolina.
North Carolina cases hit 3,000
Meanwhile, DHHS reported 2,870 coronavirus cases statewide as of Monday.
That’s an increase of 285 cases since Sunday. Monday’s increase comes after the state reported 183 new cases on Sunday.
While the state updates its totals once per day, The News & Observer is tracking the number of cases and deaths throughout the day, relying on state and county health departments. The News & Observer’s reported case number is 3,039 with 48 deaths.
In North Carolina, the number of cases is currently doubling every six days. In Mecklenburg County, cases are doubling every seven days. In Raleigh, doubling time is 7.5 days, and in Durham, every 10 days.
After the state saw its first confirmed case of COVID-19 on March 3, it took the state 25 days to rise to 1,000 confirmed cases and eight more days to cross the 2,000-case threshold on April 2. It took four days to jump from 2,000 to 3,000.
In other words, North Carolina took four weeks to reach 1,500 confirmed cases and six days to double that by reaching 3,000 cases.
Wake County updated its case total Monday evening to 325, and Durham County to 203. Johnston County reported 44 coronavirus cases as of Monday.
Mecklenburg County remains the state’s coronavirus epicenter, as county officials reported 733 cases and six deaths in their latest update Monday.
The number of people hospitalized by the virus is now 270, up from 261 on Sunday, the state reported.
Deaths among North Carolina residents from virus complications is 33, according to the state’s accounting — two additional deaths since Sunday.
Carteret County health officials reported the first coronavirus-related death of one of its residents on Monday morning. The patient, aged in the 80s with several underlying medical conditions, died last Thursday.
Columbus County and Davidson County also reported their first deaths on Monday. Patients in both counties had underlying medical conditions.
Deaths were also reported in Gaston, Henderson and Moore counties on Monday.
New hope in new drug
UNC-Chapel Hill researchers and a team of other scientists have found that a new antiviral drug called EIDD-2801 can prevent and reduce severe lung damage in testing that involved mice infected with coronavirus.
“This new drug not only has high potential for treating COVID-19 patients, but also appears effective for the treatment of other serious coronavirus infections,” said Ralph Baric, senior author of the new study published Monday.
The human clinical trials for the drug, which can be taken in pill form, are expected to start this spring.
Coronavirus impacts prisons in NC
Hoping to prevent the coronavirus from spreading more widely, North Carolina prison officials said that they will not accept any more offenders from county jails for the next 14 days.
They will also stop the transfer of most inmates from prison to prison during the next two weeks.
As of Monday, seven inmates in the state prison system had tested positive for COVID-19. The inmates are housed at Neuse Correctional Institution, Caledonia Correctional Institution and Johnston Correctional Institution, all in Eastern North Carolina.
At the Federal Correctional Complex in Butner, the number of people who have tested positive for the coronavirus surged dramatically over the weekend, the director of Granville and Vance counties’ public health department said Monday. The number who have tested positive — 59 so far — is nearly five times what the federal Bureau of Prisons reported over the weekend. On Monday evening, the Bureau of Prisons reported most of the new cases, listing 54 inmates and one staff member as testing positive.
Party violates Executive Order, warrant issued
Hillsborough police issued a warrant for a man who held a block party Sunday night that violated the state’s ban on gatherings of more than 10 people, according to a news release from the town on Monday.
Police plan to charge Tocee Mitchell, 32, of 585 Riddle Ave., with violating Gov. Roy Cooper’s Executive Order to stay at home. Town officials say Mitchell is accused of hosting a party with 30 to 50 people in attendance.
Officers responded to the party twice Sunday evening, officials say. They found about 30 cars in the area during the first visit, and at that time, they warned partygoers about violating the stay-at-home order. A little over an hour later, police returned and found partygoers and their cars were still there.
Police then announced the violation over a loudspeaker and the party dispersed.
NC Amtrak service further disrupted
The Carolinian, the train that Amtrak and the N.C. Department of Transportation operate daily between Charlotte and New York City, has been suspended because of the coronavirus outbreak.
The Carolinian joins dozens of Amtrak trains that are running less often or not at all because of “significantly reduced demand,” according to the railroad. NCDOT says the Carolinian will remain suspended at least through May 3.
The northbound and southbound runs of the Carolinian are among eight passenger trains that normally operate each day between Raleigh and Charlotte, with stops that include Cary, Durham, Greensboro and High Point.
Local pastors hospitalized
Two pastors from a Raleigh church were hospitalized on Sunday, according to information posted on the church’s Facebook page.
Grant Staubs, lead pastor at Mid-Way Baptist Church on Fayetteville Road, and Craig Dyson, the church’s communications pastor, are both being treated for COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. A third member of the church’s staff, worship pastor Trevor Thompson, held a Facebook Live prayer vigil for his colleagues on Sunday night.
Staff writers Richard Stradling, Brian Murphy, Kate Murphy and Tammy Grubb contributed to this report.
This story was originally published April 6, 2020 at 11:16 AM with the headline "As NC coronavirus cases keep rising, studies try to predict what’s next for the state."