How NC State’s NCAA resume stacks up with other at-large teams
A winning ACC record used to be an automatic ticket to the NCAA tournament but that hasn’t been the case since the ACC first expanded in 2004.
So while N.C. State should feel good about its NCAA tournament chances at 20-8 overall, the conference record (N.C. State is 8-7 in the ACC) is not the indicator for tournament inclusion it once was.
Since the start of the 2004-05 season, 12 teams have finished with a winning ACC record (most recently Syracuse in 2017), and been left out of the NCAA field.
That almost never happened before the ACC went from nine to 11 teams in ‘05, and then added Boston College a year later, and then went to 15 teams by 2014.
The selection committee does not use conference record as part of its criteria but from the time the NCAA field expanded in 1980 (to include more than two teams per conference) through 2004, only one team with a winning ACC record (Virginia in 2000) was left out of the field.
The Wolfpack has had some time off to prepare for Saturday’s important trip to Florida State (22-6, 10-5 ACC). The road game against FSU, No. 26 in the NCAA’s new NET rankings, is considered a “Quadrant 1” game.
The selection committee breaks up the “Q1” games as home games against teams ranked No. 1-30, neutral-site games against teams No. 1-50 and road games against teams No. 1-75. Q2 games are split up by home (No. 31-75), neutral (No. 51-100) and away (No. 76-135).
At 1-7 in Q1 games, N.C. State’s resume could use a boost. Right now, N.C. State’s strengths are its NET ranking (No. 30), a 6-0 record in Q2 games and, as coach Kevin Keatts put it, a bunch of “great losses.” Four of N.C. State’s losses are to top 10 teams and seven are in Q1 games.
But N.C. State’s strength of schedule, No. 353 out of 353 teams, could be a stumbling block for the Wolfpack — if not for its inclusion in the at-large field then for its seeding and potential to avoid the “First Four” play-in round in Dayton.
San Francisco (No. 272) and Furman (No. 311 SOS) are the only other “bubble” teams with a SOS ranking higher than No. 250. The committee has traditionally favored teams with a strong nonconference schedule because those are the games you can control. N.C. State made the tournament in 2012 and ‘14 largely in part because of a quality SOS.
Last season, N.C. State was a No. 9 seed and able to overcome its weak SOS (No. 245 last year) with a trio of quality Q1 wins over Duke, UNC (on the road) and Arizona (neutral site). This season, the best win is a home win over Auburn (No. 24).
N.C. State has three regular-season games left — at FSU (No. 26), at home vs. Georgia Tech (No. 128) and at Boston College (No. 127) — the trip to FSU is really the best chance to improve its resume before the ACC tournament.
The Wolfpack is tracking towards the 8-9 game in the ACC tournament, which could mean a second matchup with Clemson (No. 43) in Charlotte.
This story was originally published February 27, 2019 at 1:41 PM with the headline "How NC State’s NCAA resume stacks up with other at-large teams."
