Up-and-down Triad jobless rate falls to 3.6% in March; Iranian war impact not felt yet

The Triad's unemployment rate remained on its recent up-and-down trend during March, tumbling to 3.6% following a modest uptick in both hiring and those exiting the labor force, the N.C. Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

The latest report continues to reflect an overall stagnant market for both job seekers and employers.

Over the past year, the Triad's jobless rate has ranged from 3.6% to 4.3%.

The 10-county Piedmont Triad region experienced a 1,933 net job gain in the labor force from January to February, bringing the total to 815,187 listed as employed.

Meanwhile, those listed as unemployed dropped by 2,577 to 29,742 in March, nearly negating the gains experienced in February.

The unemployment rate usually is affected by workers being hired or by job eliminations. Those voluntarily leaving the workforce are not counted as unemployed.

Forsyth County's employment rate dropped from 4% in February to 3.6%, while Guilford County's rate declined from 4.3% to 3.9%.

Economists consider a 5% unemployment rate as full employment.

Altogether, all 14 counties in the Triad and northwest N.C. had a decrease in their month-over-month jobless rate.

Economists cautioned that the January through March state jobless rates are not reflecting the February outbreak of the U.S. war against Iran and the spillover effect on the U.S. and state economies.

"With the war's likely adverse impacts on prices, inflation and uncertainty, it is likely future reports will not be as upbeat," said Michael Walden, a retired N.C. State economics professor.

"At the beginning of 2026 most economists, including me, were predicting a reasonably decent year for both businesses and households."

Walden cautioned that economists "are busy recalibrating their models and trying to access what economic impacts the conflict will have."

"It seems to be clear that the conflict will have negative impacts. The questions are how negative and what that bad news will entail."

Commerce no longer provides a monthly update on metro hiring patterns across eight private-sector categories and state and local government.

The Winston-Salem metro area of Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Stokes and Yadkin counties had a net year-over-year gain of 2,400 private sector jobs, while there was no net change in government jobs.

Leading the year-over-year net gains were 2,800 jobs in private education and health services and 500 in professional and business services.

Meanwhile, there was a year-over-year loss of 600 jobs in manufacturing, 300 in trade, transportation and utilities and 200 in financial activities.

For the three-county Greensboro-High Point metro area of Guilford, Randolph and Rockingham counties, there was a net gain of 1,800 private-sector jobs and 400 in government.

Leading the year-over-year net gains were 2,700 jobs in private education and health services, and 1,100 jobs in the lower-wage sector of leisure and hospitality.

There was a loss of 1,100 in trade, transportation and utilities, 700 in manufacturing jobs and 300 in information technology.

"Hiring momentum is clearly slowing across the country, and North Carolina is not immune," said Mark Vitner, chief economist with Piedmont Crescent Capital.

"Businesses have become more cautious about slowing economic growth and increased policy uncertainty. Workers are also remaining in their jobs longer, with turnover slowing sharply across all industries."

Manufacturing job losses have been acutely felt in the Triad with at least 11 plant closing announcements since the start of 2025. More than 1,200 jobs were lost in those announcements.

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