Zero to 1,000 in 25 days: The story of coronavirus in NC is far from over, experts say
In the space of 25 days, North Carolina’s coronavirus cases went from zero to more than 1,000 — and two local experts say it’s unrealistic to think the disease’s reach will slow dramatically in the next month.
On Saturday, the state saw its fifth straight day of triple-digit increases. More than three-quarters of the state’s 100 counties have at least one case. As of Saturday afternoon, at least four North Carolina residents had died from the virus.
Those are the known cases. The lack of available tests at the outset have limited identifying cases. And in recent days, state officials have begun advising those with mild coronavirus symptoms to stay home, self-isolate and get over the illness rather than seek testing.
That can help prevent potential spread and saves much needed masks and other medical supplies from being used — but also suppresses the actual total number of cases.
Julie Swann, an NC State University professor who has worked with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Dr. Cameron Wolfe, Duke University’s lead infectious disease specialist, said North Carolina’s universities and state and local government officials have done a good job with social distancing actions to limit the disease’s spread.
“I do believe that one of the reasons why North Carolina’s growth is smaller is because we have put in place measures that are helping,” Swann said.
The state’s demographics may have helped keep the numbers lower than those in some other states. It is not as globally connected as California, New York and Washington, the states representing the first wave of the virus. North Carolina also does not have as dense a population, or a major international airport.
“This is the only time that I’m celebrating the fact that we don’t have a public transit system that moves many people around,” Wolfe said.
But other demographics could point to big trouble for North Carolina if the virus gets a firm grip, he said. The comorbidity factors for the virus — the existence of more than one illness or condition at the same time that contributes to death — include obesity, smoking and poverty, which often translates to a lack of access to health care. North Carolina ranks higher than many states in those categories.
North Carolina saw its first reported case on March 3, when a Wake County man returned from a nursing home in Washington state where the virus had later broken out. Eighteen days later, North Carolina’s reported cases hit 200, and then climbed past 500 on Tuesday. It took four more days for that number to double.
The Triangle’s major universities were among the first to respond by canceling classes on campus in the second week of March and later sending students home. Duke had previously canceled classes at a sister university in Kunshan, China, on Jan. 24.
Public schools were closed March 16, and will stay that way at least through May 15. The wave of stay-at-home orders began shortly after, with Wake, Durham, Orange and Mecklenburg issuing theirs in the past two days. Gov. Roy Cooper issued a statewide order on Friday that lasts 30 days.
Swann said the doubling rate for reported cases in the United States is at roughly three days. The state needs more time to see if social distancing will cause that rate to slow. She and Wolfe both opposed President Donald Trump’s suggestion this week that such policies could be scaled back by Easter.
“That’s just profoundly naïve,” Wolfe said of Trump’s expectations for the outbreak. “It really is just a failure to appreciate what’s going on.”
Swann said, “We are not in the position to lift our distancing measures at this point in time. I think there are a lot of unknown cases of COVID-19 in communities throughout the United States, and I think we are still in the upswing of the epidemic curve.”
Wolfe said he and others at Duke expect the pandemic to worsen in the United States over the next two weeks.
This story was originally published March 28, 2020 at 2:41 PM.