Coronavirus has claimed more lives in NC than the winding down flu season, data show
The coronavirus has already led to more deaths in North Carolina than the months-long flu season that’s wrapping up, according to data from the state.
Although flu season typically lasts until mid-May in North Carolina, cases and deaths have significantly tapered off. No deaths and only six cases of the flu were reported during the week ending April 11.
Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic is still in full swing in the state, with experts saying the peak is hard to predict.
The flu has claimed 167 lives in the state since the season began in late September 2019, according to the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services. The first case of the coronavirus was reported in the state on March 3, and 233 people have died as of Tuesday, The News & Observer reports.
It’s unclear whether fewer people with the flu are seeking treatment, perhaps because they are afraid of coronavirus exposure at doctor’s offices and hospitals. But hospitals across the state say their emergency rooms have become less busy, according to The N&O.
“Although the total number of people going to the emergency department with fever and respiratory symptoms has gone down, the percentage of them that have to stay in the hospital for at least 24 hours has gone up,” a report from the health department says. “This suggests patients with milder COVID-like illness are either getting care outside the ED or not seeking medical care.”
Over the last five complete flu seasons, an average of about 218 deaths were reported.
| Flu (as of April 11) | Coronavirus (as of April 21) | |
| Reported cases in NC | 12,411 | 7,078 |
| Deaths in NC | 167 | 233 |
| Death rate | 1.3% | 3.3% |
Additionally, 12,411 cases of the flu have been reported in North Carolina so far this season. That’s about 5,000 more than the 7,078 reported coronavirus cases as of Tuesday, according to data collected by The News & Observer.
That means, as of Tuesday afternoon, this flu season has a death rate of about 1.3% while the coronavirus has a death rate of about 3.3%.
The most flu-related deaths reported in one week in North Carolina this season was 19, in late February. That’s still lower than the highest number of coronavirus deaths reported in one day, which so far is 29.
And while the flu is tapering off, the number of coronavirus cases is expected to continue climbing, as cases are doubling every 13 days in North Carolina.
Nationally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say flu activity is now low but influenza-like illness activity is still elevated.
The CDC estimates that between Oct. 1 and April 4 there have been 39 million to 56 million cases of the flu in the United States. It estimates between 24,000 and 62,000 deaths.
As of Tuesday afternoon, there have been about 804,000 cases of the coronavirus in the country and about 43,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.
However, it’s hard to know the full impact of the coronavirus in the state and nationwide, as testing is limited and many cases go unreported or undetected.
Experts have said it’s difficult to make predictions about the coronavirus, but one model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecasts 251 deaths in North Carolina by Aug. 4. The model’s predictions fluctuate regularly.
Although the flu and COVID-19 have similarities in terms of their symptoms and transmission, an important distinction is familiarity.
While doctors are familiar with the “ebb and flow” of the flu season and are aware of its severity and when it will likely end, there are a lot of “unknowns” surrounding coronavirus, McClatchy News reports, and no vaccine is available yet for COVID-19.
The response to the pandemic has also been vastly different than during a typical flu season.
States across the country have put stay-home orders in place, closed nonessential businesses and limited the movement of residents.
In North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper’s executive order is in place until April 29 but could be extended. Some have protested the order, demanding the state be reopened.
But the governor has said doing away with restrictions completely would be catastrophic.
This story was originally published April 21, 2020 at 3:13 PM.
