When did COVID-19 deaths surge and why are there discrepancies? Here’s what data show
U.S. coronavirus-related deaths surged in mid-April, but those figures may not provide an accurate picture of death-toll trends, health officials say.
That’s because the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention can have reporting lags up to two weeks, according to its website.
The agency says its death counts depend on data from death certificates and coding from the National Center for Health Statistics, which take time to complete. Also, states share their data at different rates, and “other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths,” according to the CDC.
That results in CDC death tolls that appear to contradict each other.
For example, one CDC chart shows that there have been 44,016 COVID-19 related deaths in the U.S., as of Wednesday. But a second CDC map and chart shows the death toll at 70,802, also as of Wednesday.
The reason for the stark difference?
The first chart shows “provisional death counts,” which means they have been coded by the National Center for Health Statistics.
The second one is more in line with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University, which reported coronavirus had killed more than 71,500 people in the United States as of Wednesday afternoon. The two CDC charts tally confirmed and probable fatalities from the coronavirus, health officials say.
The CDC reported a surge in mid-April, with the highest number of coronavirus deaths — 12,628 — the week that ended April 11, according to its “provisional death counts.” That week was also when highest percentage of people died from COVID-19, flu and pneumonia, a jump from the past two years, according to a chart posted to Twitter on Tuesday.
The number and portion of overall deaths from those causes has declined each week since then, “but this percentage may change as death certificates representing recent deaths are processed,” according to the CDC. The latest figures were also above the baseline, health officials said as of Friday.
So far, the CDC’s provisional death count lists 4,521 coronavirus deaths for the week ending April 25 and 189 deaths for the week ending May 2, according to figures updated on Wednesday. But if more fatalities are confirmed as COVID-19 related, the numbers could rise and show a more up-to-date death toll picture.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, both Democrats and Republicans have said the death toll may be off, McClatchy News reported Tuesday.
While 63% of Democrats say it’s under-reported, 24% of Republicans also think so, according to an Axios-Ipsos poll. On the other hand, 40% of Republicans and 7% of Democrats think the count is lower, results show.
This story was originally published May 6, 2020 at 4:52 PM.
