CDC expects COVID-19 deaths to jump in six states — including North Carolina
A consortium of forecast models compiled by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predict North Carolina and five other states will see increases in the number of coronavirus deaths in the coming weeks.
From June 8 to July 4, deaths in Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, North Carolina, Utah and Vermont are forecast to exceed what they were in the previous four weeks, the CDC said Friday.
For most other states, that number is expected to remain stagnant or decline, according to the agency.
The models predict deaths nationwide will reach between 124,000 and 140,000 by July 4. More than 114,300 people have already died in the U.S. from the virus as of Friday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins University.
In North Carolina, at least 1,121 people have died as of Friday, The News & Observer reported.
According to N.C. Department of Health and Human Services data, roughly 473 of them died in the previous four weeks, between May 9 and June 7.
The CDC based its prediction on 17 national forecasts published by Columbia University, Johns Hopkins and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, among others. Each is built on statistical models that predict how many COVID-19 deaths will be reported over the coming four weeks based on a large swath of data — from demographics to mobility and social distancing rules.
What the data show
North Carolina broke another record for the largest single-day increase in coronavirus cases on Friday, climbing past 40,000 for a total of 41,249 confirmed cases, The News & Observer reported.
An additional 28 people died since Thursday and the percentage of positive cases climbed to 10% — up from 9% the day before, according to the N&O. The state’s inpatient beds are now at 80% capacity with reported hospitalizations at 760 on Friday.
N.C. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mandy Cohen has said that figure “continues to concern her because that number is one of four metrics the state uses to track the virus’ spread,” the N&O reported.
During a news conference Friday, Cohen attributed the state’s climbing case count in-part to increased testing. But, she said, it’s also “very much linked to when we started reopening.”
North Carolina began its first phase of reopening on May 8. The second phase started May 22.
“This isn’t a second wave. This, for us, is a first,” Cohen said. “I actually think this is our first experience at an increase — at the beginning of that increase. We are reminded that this virus is here, and we have to learn to live with this virus, because we don’t have a vaccine. We don’t have a cure.”
She also called the pace of new confirmed cases “concerning.”
The next COVID-19 hot spot?
The CDC isn’t the first entity in recent days to pinpoint the Tar Heel State as a possible problem spot for the coronavirus moving forward.
In an article Monday, The Washington Post listed North Carolina as one of 14 states recording “their highest-ever seven-day average of new coronavirus cases since the pandemic began.”
Neighboring South Carolina, which the Post described as “living under only minor-to-moderate restrictions,” also made the list.
The Post attributed it in part to a new percentage of coronavirus cases sweeping the rural parts of America.
The following day, Dr. Eric Topol — director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute and a professor of molecular medicine — tweeted a list of states whose recent trends indicated they could be “the first to lock down again,” he said.
North Carolina was again among them.
The data and subsequent list of struggling states is based on Covid Exit Strategy, “a group of public health and crisis experts” compiling and tracking COVID-19 data across the U.S., according to its website.
On Wednesday, Vox also compiled a rundown of states “experts worry are the new COVID-19 hot spots” based on the reporter’s conversations with public health experts nationwide.
North and South Carolina were among the those to watch.
“Hospitalizations are up, and the positive test rate is rising,” Vox reported. “The hospital system’s bed availability is considered low, according to the Covid Exit Strategy dashboard, though it is not dangerously so yet.”
The article also pointed to a record number of hospitalizations in North Carolina on Tuesday, which have since dropped, according to The News & Observer.
Still, Vox reported “its trendlines are being watched closely for now.”
This story was originally published June 12, 2020 at 7:58 PM with the headline "CDC expects COVID-19 deaths to jump in six states — including North Carolina."
