COVID-19 is growing at a higher rate in Triangle than in the rest of NC. Here’s a look.
With each update state health officials provide, the spread and severity of COVID-19 in North Carolina continues to be a concern.
Dr. Mandy Cohen, secretary of the state’s Department of Health and Human Services, and Gov. Roy Cooper are expected to announce Wednesday whether any more social restrictions will be relaxed or whether the current Phase Two status will be extended past Friday’s expiration date.
“We are trying to find the right balance here between reigniting the economy and protecting the public health,” Cohen said during her most recent news conference on Monday. “We don’t want to get to a place where we overwhelm our healthcare system.”
The Triangle’s place among the state’s three major urban areas, along with Charlotte and the Triad, has made it a focus of attention because of the rapid spread of the virus since Cooper’s executive order moving North Carolina into Phase two on May 22.
But as people have been allowed to move around more, and more businesses have opened since that date, new COVID-19 cases are growing at a high rate in five Triangle counties.
On May 22, Wake, Orange, Durham, Chatham and Johnston counties had recorded a combined 3,701 cases, accounting for 17.1% of the state’s 21,618 cases. On Tuesday, the total for the five counties had grown to 9,964. That accounts for 18.2% of the state’s 54,453 cases.
By individual county:
▪ Wake County’s seven-day average of new daily lab-confirmed cases has grown from 40.2 on May 22 to 134.7 on Tuesday.
▪ Durham County has exceeded 100 new cases per day six times since May 22, including twice in the past seven days. It had only done so once prior to May 22.
▪ Orange County went from April 15 through May 22 without recording 10 or more new cases per day. Since then, it’s happened 12 times, including four times in the past seven days. The single-day high of 21 cases was reached on June 14.
▪ Chatham County has relatively good news. Chatham experienced a 10-day stretch between April 23 and May 2 when it exceeded 20 new cases per day eight times. It has exceeded 20 new cases in seven days since May 22 and only twice in the past seven days.
▪ Johnston County has seen its average of new cases grow from 9.6 in the previous seven days on May 22 to 40.2 on the seven days that include Tuesday.
Phase Two order set to expire Friday
Increased testing over the past four weeks certainly plays a role in the rising number of cases. During Congressional testimony on Tuesday, Rep. G.K. Butterfield, D-N.C., asked Dr. Anthony Fauci about the increasing number of cases in North Carolina.
Fauci, the leading infectious disease expert on the White House coronavirus task force, said the numbers could not be explained simply by an increase in the availability of tests for COVID-19 because “when you get an increase in the percentage of tests that are positive, that’s an indication that you do have additional infections.”
The state’s percent of positive tests was 10% on Tuesday. Cohen has said she’d prefer that percentage drop to 5%.
Cooper’s current executive order, which he refers to as safer at home, is due to expire Friday at 5 p.m. It limits mass gatherings to 10 indoors and 25 outdoors, with exceptions for religious activities and protests because they are both protected under the Constitution’s First Amendment.
Daily protests against racial injustices, which have occurred in Raleigh and Durham since George Floyd was killed while in Minneapolis police custody on May 25, have brought gatherings larger than those numbers together.
Most stores are allowed open for business with limited capacity while adhering to social distancing and cleaning requirements. In addition to carry-out customers, restaurants can serve dine-in customers but can only operate at a limited capacity.
Bars and fitness clubs are not allowed to open.
Wake County, the state’s second-most populous county behind Mecklenburg, has recorded 4,106 cases and 44 deaths since the pandemic began in March, according to DHHS statistics. Wake is home to 1,111,716 people.
The county has exceeded 100 new, lab-confirmed cases daily in 10 of the past 14 days, including the last six days in a row. The average daily number of new cases announced over the past seven days has grown to 134.7.
On May 22, the day the state moved into Phase Two, the average number of new lab-confirmed cases per day over the previous seven days was 40.2.
County by county breakdown
Wake County is now responsible for 7.4% of the state’s total cases compared to 6.4% on May 22.
In Durham County, 3,244 cases have been lab-confirmed along with 60 deaths. That accounts for 5.96% of the state’s cases, compared to 5.38% on May 22. So Durham’s case growth rate has mirrored the state’s for the most part.
Durham’s seven-day average of daily new case counts is now 67.2. On May 22, the average for the previous seven days was 34.
Orange County has recorded 546 cases with 41 deaths. It’s seven-day average of new cases is currently 9.6 per day, compared to 4 on May 22.
Orange’s growth rate is a bit slower than the state average. The county accounts for 1% of the state’s overall cases as opposed to 1.35% on May 22.
Chatham County’s average number of new cases per day over the past seven days is about the same as it was on May 22 — 11 now compared to 10.6 on May 22. With 890 cases and 42 deaths, Chatham accounts for 1.63% of the state’s overall cases. On May 22, that percentage was 1.35%.
Johnston County now has recorded 1,178 cases and 28 deaths. The county is responsible for 2.16% of the state’s overall cases, compared to 1.36% on May 22.
This story was originally published June 23, 2020 at 3:35 PM.