Almost half of NC counties reach COVID ‘tipping point’ as Thanksgiving nears, data show
Update: Nearly two-thirds of North Carolina counties are in the red zone as of Dec. 22. Here’s the latest story.
Daily coronavirus cases in nearly half of North Carolina’s 100 counties have reached a “tipping point” ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, according to data released by Harvard University.
Researchers there are mapping the COVID-19 risk by state and county according to the seven-day moving average of new cases per 100,000 people. When the tool was first released in July, four of North Carolina’s 100 counties were in the red zone.
Now at least 42 counties are in the red zone, with 25 or more cases per 100,000 people.
The map, released by Harvard Global Health Institute, uses four colors to illustrate risk levels in every county: green, yellow, orange and red. Red designates a “tipping point” in which researchers say stay-at-home orders are necessary.
Much of Harvard’s risk map for North Carolina is shaded red — particularly in rural counties.
New coronavirus cases statewide climbed from a seven-day average of roughly 1,200 mid-September to 2,700 as of Sunday, according to data compiled by state health officials. Dr. Mandy Cohen, secretary of the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services, said Thursday that case counts in rural counties are a big reason for the spike.
“I think they are communities that largely were spared earlier in the year,” she said. “Now the virus has hit these communities.”
Columbus County near the coast and Alexander and Mitchell counties in Western North Carolina have the highest per capita case rate as of Nov. 16, according to Harvard researchers. Dare County on the Outer Banks, which kept itself largely insulated early in the pandemic but reopened for tourists over the summer, is reporting 30.5 new cases per 100,000 — putting it in the top 20 counties with the highest risk.
North Carolina’s two largest counties — Mecklenburg and Wake — are now in the orange zone. That means there are 10 to 24 cases per 100,000 people, showing “accelerated spread.” Researchers say stay-at-home orders are advised.
A surge in COVID-19 cases over the summer pushed Mecklenburg County into the red zone with a per capita case rate of 28.3 per 100,000 in early July, McClatchy News previously reported. The county had a case rate of 24 per 100,000 as of Monday.
Many of Mecklenburg’s surrounding counties, however, are in the red zone.
Gaston, Lincoln, Catawba, Rowan and Cabarrus counties, where the per capita case rates are between 28 and 40, are all at a “tipping point,” according to the Harvard researchers.
Wake County had a per capita case rate of 18.7 per 100,000 as of Monday.
But nearby Johnston, Wilson, Nash, Alamance and Granville counties had per capita case rates between 28 and 33, putting them in the red zone.
Thanksgiving risk
Another map released by the Georgia Institute of Technology helps families in any given area calculate the risk of at least one person testing positive for the coronavirus at a Thanksgiving gathering. A gathering of 50 people in Alexander and Mitchell counties has a risk level of 76% and 83%, respectively.
The risk of a person testing positive at the same size gathering in Wake County is 38%, according to the map. Mecklenburg County carries a risk of 44%.
Local health departments in North Carolina have warned against traveling for Thanksgiving and urged people who do to get a COVID-19 test ahead of time.
Public health experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have also urged Americans to practice social distancing and limit the number of guests at Thanksgiving dinner as the pandemic worsens, citing the risk of transmitting the virus during a shared meal.
This story was originally published November 16, 2020 at 1:24 PM.
