How could NC’s COVID-19 situation change by the Fourth of July?
Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to soon present a forecast of how North Carolinians should expect the COVID-19 pandemic to change by the Fourth of July.
“We need to continue to be careful and responsible. I know that as summer approaches, many people are curious about how things will change and what to expect,” Cooper said last week, adding that the state’s forecast would be created with input from health experts and the business community.
Three experts interviewed by The News & Observer said North Carolina needs to maintain its vaccination rate in order to return to something like a pre-pandemic normal. If that happens, they said, summer activities like attending baseball games, cookouts and taking summer vacations will become safer by the Fourth of July.
But if people are not cautious, case counts could climb, particularly considering new, more-infectious variants.
“We can all see the finish line, but sometimes it feels like it’s moving further away the closer we get. But it’s still in the line of sight,” Dr. Anita Skariah, the medical director of UNC Health’s Orange Family Medical Group, told The News & Observer.
“It may not be the July Fourth deadline that they’re thinking, it may be a little bit longer, but it’s coming. We’re getting there, we’re getting close.”
Under the governor’s existing executive order, which is in effect until April 30, indoor gatherings are limited to 50 people and outdoor gatherings to 100. Some establishments like museums and retail businesses can operate at full capacity; restaurants and breweries are limited to 75% capacity indoors; and bars, concert venues and sports arenas are limited to 50% capacity.
How could pandemic restrictions change?
Dr. Emily Sickbert-Bennett, a UNC School of Medicine infectious disease expert, said she is already comfortable attending small gatherings with other families who have received the vaccine, as well as one group of unvaccinated people.
Those gatherings are likely to grow in size by the Fourth of July, Sickbert-Bennett said, while likely remaining outdoors to protect children who are not yet eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine. But Sickbert-Bennett noted that adding more people raises the chance of someone at a gathering being infected, particularly if the new additions have not received a vaccine.
“It’s important to be thoughtful,” Sickbert-Bennett said. “We’re not going back to huge parties right away, but thinking about incrementally adding people. Particularly if you know people’s vaccine status and you’re choosing to get together with other people who are vaccinated, that’s definitely a safer practice.”
For now, Skariah said she is comfortable with small indoor gatherings with vaccinated friends and families who are continuing to follow public health measures like masking and avoiding unnecessary travel. Skariah said she is also comfortable socializing with people who have not taken the COVID-19 vaccine, as long as it is outdoors.
Bars and theaters are still out of the question for her, but Skariah said she is comfortable recommending an outdoor restaurant once someone has taken the vaccine.
As for indoor dining, Skariah said, “As long as we can get moving like we are with this vaccine process, then probably by the end of the year we should be looking forward to that.”
Julie Swann, an NC State University health systems engineer, told The N&O that families whose members are all vaccinated are safer and more likely to resume pre-pandemic activities than families who are not all vaccinated. For now, Swann said, she is comfortable eating dinner outdoors with a gathering of two or three other families.
A dinner party of 20 to 30 people would still be too much, though, especially because it would be difficult to know everyone’s vaccination status. Those larger gatherings could start anywhere from July to August, Swann said, depending on a community’s vaccination rate and case levels.
“That sounds like a long time away still to some people because they say, ‘Oh, I’m vaccinated, I’m good,’ but the impact of this variant could be big,” Swann said, referencing the more infectious variants of the coronavirus that are circulating throughout the country.
As for summer travel, Swann said she expects to be comfortable with a trip where she drove to a destination, but remained masked in indoor settings and followed distancing measures. Sickert-Bennett said she is planning to take an airplane in a couple of months, but expects to remain masked the entire time, noting that like dining indoors, flying entails being near many people you do not know.
“The air is changing quite a lot (on a plane),” Sickbert-Bennett said, “but you do need to have your mask on to protect yourself from somebody nearby who is sick.”
Coronavirus variants are the wild card
During a four-week period ending March 27, the more-contagious variants made up more than 30% of the 1,415 North Carolina COVID-19 samples that were genetically sequenced, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The variant initially discovered in the United Kingdom was found in 21.1% of North Carolina’s samples, while a variant first discovered in California made up 7% of the samples and the variant first found in South Africa was found in 3.6%.
North Carolina officials, Swann said, should be carefully watching the variant-driven spike in Michigan.
“What has been happening in this pandemic is that things that hit New York and Michigan and other places first tend to come to North Carolina, but come a little bit later,” Swann said.
Furthermore, Swann added, there are some communities in North Carolina where a large proportion of the population will have taken a COVID-19 vaccine by the Fourth of July, affording significant levels of protection. Then there will be communities with lower proportions of vaccinated people, giving the virus more chances to find footing.
“We are absolutely going to see different levels of protection by July 4,” Swann said.
According to N.C. Department of Health and Human Services polling data, 69% of North Carolinians have either already taken, would definitely take or would probably take a COVID-19 vaccine. While that would likely fall short of a target for herd immunity, it is an increase from November, when 60% said they would likely take a vaccine.
The DHHS poll also found that 47% of unvaccinated people who live in rural areas said they would probably or definitely get the vaccine, less than the 60% in suburban and 59% in urban areas.
Younger unvaccinated North Carolinians are also less likely to want a shot. Among unvaccinated people younger than 35 years old, just under half said they definitely or probably want a vaccine compared to 60% of unvaccinated people between 35 and 44 years old and 62% between 45 and 54 years old.
Masks are likely to remain common for a while, according to Sickbert-Benett, particularly if the new variants prove to be capable of breaking through the protections of some vaccinated people.
“As people are traveling and intermingling more, we certainly have our eye on that. If the vaccine becomes less effective, then that makes masking more important,” Sickbert-Bennett said.
Skariah, the UNC family medicine doctor, stressed the importance of remaining flexible as the pandemic enters its second summer.
“If we get too locked in and too worried that (something) is the only thing that we’re going to do and then it doesn’t happen, we get disappointed. That’s difficult,” Skariah said. “But at the same time, I think we have to be careful and just keep being willing to change and modify.”
This story was originally published April 15, 2021 at 11:41 AM.