Does thunder in winter really mean snow will follow? A meteorologist fact checks it.
There’s an old wives’ tale that has some winter weather-lovers crossing their fingers and toes for right now: If it thunders in the winter, it’ll snow within the next week.
Is that true?
The News & Observer spoke with National Weather Service Raleigh senior service hydrologist Barrett Smith to learn what’s fact and what’s fiction:
If I hear winter thunder, is snow on the way?
Scientifically, no. It could mean a cold front is on its way, but that doesn’t mean precipitation — specifically, snow — is coming with it.
“My impression has always been that if it’s warm enough and conditions are right for you to get thunder in the winter, you’re most likely going to have a significant change in air masses on the way. Warm air to cold air, in this instance,” Smith said.
“Once the cold air has settled over the area, the next weather system may have a chance to interact with the cold air before it warms up, but it’s no guarantee.”
Current conditions in the Triangle are showers and storms, and a significant cold air mass is about to follow this weekend and early next week. But it’ll be a dry period with no expected precipitation.
“In this case, by the time we get another weather system, the cold air will have moderated, or warmed up, and any precipitation will be rain. And that wouldn’t be until late next week,” he said.
Was there lightning & thunder in Raleigh this week?
There have been some lightning strikes and thunder rumbles near NC State’s campus Thursday, Smith said.
“But despite the thunder, we’re not expecting any wintery weather next week.”
Debunking the ‘thunder to snow’ wives tale
The NC State Climate Office studied this myth several years ago, Spectrum News reported in 2020. The experts reviewed weather records dating back to the 1940s for several locations in the state, including Raleigh, Greensboro and Charlotte.
They found 642 days between the first of December and the end of February when lightning or thunder occurred. Snow fell 85 times within ten days of those 642 times — that’s only 13% of the time.
Will snow follow a ring around the moon?
Another wives’ tale says a lunar halo, or a ring seen around the moon, means wintery weather is on its way. (At least that’s what the Farmers’ Almanac says.)
We reached out to the National Weather Service to ask them about it, but they said they’re not familiar with the lunar halo myth.
This story was originally published December 22, 2022 at 1:53 PM.
