Small enrollment slide could cost Durham Public Schools millions in funding

Durham Public Schools could lose an estimated $2.5 million in state funding if the state does not act to protect districts that have lost enrollment this year.

State funding for K-12 public education is based on student enrollment, and fewer students means less money. North Carolina uses 20-day and 40-day average daily membership (ADM) numbers to determine how many students are enrolled in school districts across the state.

This year, Durham reported a loss of 272 students for the 2021-22 school year.

“Right now, we’re talking about less than 1% of enrollment. But we do not want to see any decline in enrollment given the changing landscape with COVID-19,” said Mathew Palmer, the director of strategic planning initiatives.

The N.C. Department of Public Instruction projects enrollment for each district and provides planning allotments — or funding for operations — based on the projected ADM.

State data showed DPS month one ADM fell from 30,739 last year to 30,467 this year.

“Under normal circumstances, if a school district’s actual ADM is more than 1% or 100 students less than the state’s planning allotment, the state reduces funding to the district based on the lower actual ADM,” said Alex Modestou, director of Budget and Data Analytics.

“Conversely, if a district’s ADM is at least 100 students or 1% greater than the projected ADM, the district can apply to have their funding increased based on the student increase,” he added.

Between the state and the county, Durham’s public school system receives about $10,000 for every child enrolled. This year, DPS projected having closer 32,000 students.

According to Modestou, the state held school districts harmless for enrollment decline in 2020. This meant funding based on the state’s projected ADM was not reduced based on enrollment decline.

About 108 out of North Carolina’s 115 school districts ended their first month membership less than the state’s projected ADM for 2021. However, month two data, which is not yet available, could be higher.

But if the state does act to to hold school districts harmless for differences between projected and actual enrollment in 2021-22, most school districts will see a significant decrease in their state funding.

“I estimate the state funding for DPS could drop by roughly $2.5 million if the state does not pass an enrollment hold-harmless provision,” Modestou said.

“One analyst estimates that statewide, districts could lose $132 million in state funding if the state does not pass an enrollment hold-harmless provision for the 2021-22 academic year,” he added.

A decrease in Durham Public Schools enrollment this year would continue a steady decline in recent years, even as the county has grown.

DPS saw a spike in enrollment in 2019, but the school system has lost 5.4% of students overall since 2016, despite the Chamber of Commerce citing a figure of 20 new residents moving to Durham daily.

So where are the students going?

According to Natalie Beyer, a longtime DPS board member, many students are being home schooled during the pandemic.

Charter schools and vouchers that help parents send their children to private schools have also hurt, she said.

“All of those factors have affected our enrollment and ability to gain stronger public school support,” she said.

When Beyer joined the board in 2010, Durham had eight charter schools. Now, that has nearly doubled.

“When charter schools first started in North Carolina they used to be smaller experimental schools, and what we’ve seen more recently in Durham are very large [charter] schools that can expand without much oversight from the state,” Beyer said.

“There’s also a healthy private school community enrollment in the Durham area,” she added.

But DPS officials are hopeful about gains in kindergarten and ninth grade, years when students typically join or rejoin the school system.

Palmer said the district has 3,039 ninth graders countywide, a “huge” number.

“What that is telling us is families are coming back from charter schools and enrolling into our public regional high schools, and it’s also a good sign that we have a level of enrollment at that kindergarten level,” he added.

New schools around Durham

The News & Observer previously reported that DPS anticipated needing 60 new elementary classrooms by the 2021-22 school year, with about half for new Pre-K programs under the county’s Universal Pre-K initiative.

The district will be opening a new elementary school in August 2023 at South Roxboro Street and Martin Luther King Jr. Parkway. Earlier this year, the district also started construction on the Lyons Farm Elementary School.

Meanwhile, the school district broke ground last week for the new Northern High School at 4804 and 4622 N. Roxboro Road. It, too, is scheduled to open in August 2023.

Beyer encourages families to consider public schools first when choosing where to educate their children.

“Our local public schools belong to the community and are made up 82% of students of color — that is a strength — and that is something that I ask families to strongly consider,” she said.

This story was originally published November 18, 2021 at 5:01 PM.