Wake lost students this school year. That may be the trend over the next decade.
The once growing Wake County school system could shrink in size over the next decade as school choice continues to eat into its numbers, according to newly released enrollment projections.
The Wake County school system shrank in enrollment this school year for the first time in nearly 40 years as parents opted for other education alternatives during the coronavirus pandemic.
School and county planners say the pandemic makes it harder to make long-term projections. But they’re now projecting Wake to have fewer students in 2030 than this school year.
“No one could have predicted the unprecedented events spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, nor its additional effects on birth rates, residential migration patterns or school choice,” Emily Lucas, Wake County’s chief financial officer, told the school board on Tuesday. “The updated forecast reflects both the updated short- and long-term impacts of these variables.”
The new projections come as leaders of North Carolina’s largest school district work through the many needs coming out of the coronavirus pandemic.
Pandemic impact on schools
The Wake County school system used to grow by thousands of students a year, tripling in size since the early 1980s to reach 161,907 students last school year. But enrollment growth has slowed in recent years.
This year, Wake’s official enrollment is 157,673 students — 4,234 students less than last school year. But school officials say the overall drop is closer to 3,024 students due to changes in how attendance was counted during the pandemic.
Wake students have received all, or mostly, online classes since mid-March instead of in-person classes. This week marks the first time that high schools have provided in-person instruction in 11 months.
Wake’s drop was mirrored statewide, where enrollment in traditional public schools is down 63,000 students from last school year. But enrollment went up in publicly funded charter schools, and early indications are that it’s gone up as well in home schools and private schools.
Much of Wake’s drop can be attributed to a decrease in the number of kindergarten students. School and county planners project kindergarten and first-grade enrollment to rebound this fall with overall enrollment reaching 160,591 students.
Support for investment in schools
The fall uptick, though, is projected to be a short-lived one.
Planners say factors such as school choice, fewer children being born and changing demographics in Wake County mean enrollment could fall back to 157,624 students in 2030.
But Lucas, the county’s chief financial officer, said people shouldn’t see that as a reason to stop investing in public education.
“Despite the forecast in decline in enrollment, it remains imperative to continue to plan and model the school system’s capital needs, such as the construction of new schools in areas of high growth and renovations to existing schools to ensure that each child attending WCPSS has access to quality educational facilities and programs,” Lucas said.
Last school year, the school system educated 77.6% of the county’s school-age children. That figure has been dropping since the 2011-12 school year, when it was at 83.2%, as charter schools, home-schooling and private schools have seen an increase in students.
“Regardless of the final enrollment numbers next year and for years to come, we want to make clear that an overwhelming majority of families attend the Wake County Public School System,” said Wade Martin, the district’s assistant superintendent for school choice, planning and assignment.
“As we said, predicting growth in any given year is more difficult today,” Martin said. “Predicting public schools will continue to enroll an overwhelming majority of students is easy.”
