Enrollment at Wake schools is growing again. Here’s what that could mean for families
For the first time in five years, the Wake County school system could eclipse pre-pandemic student enrollment levels next fall.
Wake County’s enrollment had dropped during the pandemic as more families chose alternatives such as charter schools, private schools or homeschooling. But new projections presented on Tuesday have the district eclipsing 162,000 students for the first time next school year and adding 16,865 students over the next decade.
The continued growth impacts areas such as funding to operate and build schools and student assignment. Citing crowding, Wake reassigned 3,500 students for next school year and placed enrollment caps at 22 schools.
“Crowded schools impact our ability to provide the optimal learning environment for all of our students,” Marcella Rorie, Wake’s senior director of long-range planning, told the school board on Tuesday.
But planners repeatedly said Tuesday that their long-range projections are impacted by uncertainty over how many families will choose private schools now that the state has opened the voucher program to all families.
Post-pandemic school enrollment recovery in Wake
Wake had its highest-ever enrollment in the 2019-20 school year with 161,907 students. But like school districts around the country, enrollment fell sharply in 2020 when COVID concerns led to students taking all or mostly online classes.
Over time, Wake’s numbers have been creeping back up. Wake grew by 1,583 students last school year and 1,120 students this school year. This school year’s membership total of 161,115 students is the highest since the pandemic.
Demographers said Wake is bucking a trend where student enrollment fell overall this school year for North Carolina’s public schools and in 77 of the 115 school districts.
Planners project Wake will grow by 1,305 students in the 2025-26 school year to reach 162,420 students overall. Wake could reach 177,979 students in the 2034-35 school year.
Wake County remains the largest school district in North Carolina.
Wake’s market share continues to decline
The district’s growth is occurring during a time of increasing education competition in North Carolina.
Since Republicans gained the legislative majority in the 2010 election, North Carolina has eliminated the state limit on the number of charter schools and made it easier for charters to get approved and to add students.
Lawmakers also created a universal private school voucher program.
Last school year, 75.7% of North Carolina students attended traditional public schools. This meant nearly one in five students attended a private school, charter school or were homeschooled.
The picture was similar in Wake. This school year alone, Wake’s charter school growth of 1,176 students was higher than the district’s growth.
Planners said the district’s “market share” of the county’s student population dropped to 74.3% last school year. That’s compared to 82.5% a decade ago.
“Overall over the next 10 years, we are still continuing to predict that public schools will continue to educate the majority of students in Wake County.” said Christopher Dick of UNC-Carolina Demography/Demographic Analytics Advisors.
