How enrollment at Triangle colleges shifted after demise of affirmative action

When affirmative action was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in a ruling against UNC-Chapel Hill and Harvard University in 2023, it was unclear what the impact would be on colleges across the state and nation.

Now, a report is shedding light on how the racial makeup of incoming college classes has shifted in the years since the landmark ruling.

Nationwide, elite colleges have gotten less diverse while less selective colleges have gotten more so, according to a report from Class Action, a higher education organization that advocates for affirmative action. That’s because of cascade effect, in which “highly qualified students of color who would have been much more likely to be admitted to highly selective institutions ... ended up enrolling in less selective institutions,” the report says.

In the Triangle, however, the trends are less straightforward, according to the data.

One of the most notable changes occurred at UNC-Chapel Hill, where the Black student population fell by nearly 3% between 2023 and 2025, according to university data.

But Duke University’s data doesn’t align well with its peer group of elite schools where Black and Hispanic populations dropped steeply, which is why it was the recipient of a letter from Students for Fair Admissions — the group that sued UNC and Harvard — questioning its compliance with the Supreme Court decision.

Here’s what the data show at four major Triangle universities.

UNC-Chapel Hill

Black student enrollment dropped by 2.7% between 2023 and 2024, and held flat in 2025. The Asian and Hispanic student populations grew by less than a percent, while the white student body fell by 1.2%.

These numbers are indicative of nationwide shifts at selective universities: lower Black student populations and basically flat Asian and white student populations.

Daniel Klasik, education professor at UNC-Chapel Hill, says he can feel a difference on campus.

“You can see that there are fewer Black students on campus than previously,” Klasik said. “I think [the end of affirmative action], plus various state policies against DEI efforts, have made a lot of the Black student population feel a little undersupported.”

Duke University

Duke says its 2025 numbers on race can’t be compared to any previous year due to a change in the way it’s handling the categorization of students who identify as more than one race.

But between 2023 and 2024, Black and Hispanic enrollment grew while the white student population fell, bucking the trend of reduced diversity at elite colleges.

In 2024, Students for Fair Admissions, or SFFA, sent Duke a letter questioning how the university was able to maintain such diversity in their incoming class.

“SFFA is deeply concerned that you are not complying with Harvard,” the letter reads. “You told the Supreme Court that, without explicit racial preferences, it would be impossible to ‘obtain the diverse student body’ that you obtained in the past. ... Please explain this discrepancy, including any new, substantial race-neutral alternatives that you adopted in response to Harvard. Without that information, SFFA will conclude that you are circumventing the Supreme Court’s decision. SFFA is prepared to enforce Harvard against you through litigation.”

Those threats of litigation never materialized, however.

Universities are still allowed to consider things like socioeconomic status and whether applicants would be first-generation college students, Klasik said, which allows for some measure of identity-conscious decision-making in the admissions process. It’s that kind of “alternative” SFFA is interested in hearing more about.

Between 2023 and 2024, the white student population at Duke dropped by 1%, the Asian student population grew by 4%, and the Hispanic and Black student populations grew by 1%, according to Duke’s data.

The “race/ethnicity unknown” category jumped from 5% to 11%, making the overall diversity picture harder to unravel at Duke.

That could be because students are choosing not to include their race in their applications.

“Students applying to the most selective schools like Duke can be really sensitive to the things that might shift their admissions one way or the other, so maybe they were being cautious there,” Klasik said.

NC State University

NC State became moderately more diverse between 2023 and 2025. The largest increase occurred in the Hispanic student population, at 1.5% growth. Over the same period, the white population dropped by 1.2%.

That could be because NC State does not consider legacy status in admissions. According to the report, “Hispanic enrollment increased in aggregate at more selective institutions that did not provide a legacy preference and declined at those that did.”

But UNC does consider legacy in its admissions, and it also saw a modest gain in Hispanic enrollment. Duke, too, considers legacy, but its data methodology changes make it difficult to compare Hispanic enrollment over time.

The Black student population at NC State held steady while the Asian and multiracial student populations grew.

NC Central University

At NC Central, the Black student population grew by 1.3% between 2023 and 2025. This could be an example of the cascade effect the report describes, Klasik said, in which Black students are more likely to attend their “safe” schools over their “reach” schools.

That increase, however, is the opposite of what the report says occurred at a majority of HBCUs. The report says that “total enrollment and Black enrollment both declined in aggregate at historically Black colleges and universities.” It also says white enrollment at HBCUs has tended to go up. Not so at NC Central.

Researchers at Class Action analyzed data from incoming classes, but don’t have information on who applied versus who was admitted, making it hard to distinguish between the effects of admissions decisions and student choice.

This story was originally published March 17, 2026 at 6:00 AM.

Jane Winik Sartwell

The News & Observer

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Jane Winik Sartwell covers higher education for The News & Observer.