Expect stronger, deadlier, more frequent hurricanes in the years to come, NOAA says

Stronger, deadlier and more frequent — that’s the trend scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have seen in the past few decades, and they expect that trend to continue in the years to come, according to a new study.

Researchers at the University of Wisconsin and NOAA analyzed satellite data of tropical cyclones over the last 40 years and found category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes were becoming increasingly common, CNN reported. Decade after decade, the likelihood of major global storms has increased, according to CNN.

“The change is about 8% per decade. In other words, during its lifetime, a hurricane is 8% more likely to be a major hurricane in this decade compared to the last decade,” James Kossin, author of the study, told CNN.

Scientists have expected tropical cyclones to get worse as the Earth’s temperature rises amid climate change, The Washington Post reported. That’s because hurricanes are directly linked to warm ocean temperatures and the atmosphere’s water vapor, according to the Post.

“We’ve just increased our confidence of our understanding of the link between hurricane intensity and climate change,” Kossin told the Post. “We have high confidence that there is a human fingerprint on these changes.”

But other experts believe that factors other than climate change could also play a role in the growing intensity of tropical cyclones, The New York Times reported. That’s partially because it’s difficult to observe wind speeds and other data based on the small number of hurricanes that threaten populations, according to the Times.

“We’re doing collectively a bad job of measuring tropical cyclones around the world,” Dr. Kerry Emmanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told the Times. “We’ve all believed we should see more intense hurricanes. But it’s very, very tricky to find it in the data.”

Kossin and his team argue that their new study is more accurate because it built upon data from previous studies, CNN reported. This study took data from another 11 years and added it to a study from 2013, according to The New York Times.

“The first time through we found trends but they hadn’t risen to the level of confidence that we would require,” Kossin told the Times. “This is saying, OK now, the historical observations are also in agreement.”

The expectation of stronger, deadlier hurricanes helps officials in the U.S. anticipate what will be needed to repair the damage in the future, as category 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes are known to be the most devastating, especially on the east coast, The Washington Post reported.

“Hurricane destruction in the United States, in terms of physical damage costs, has historically increased by 10% for every 5 mph increase in wind speed,” James Elsner, a meteorologist from Florida State University, told the Post.

The new study shows that the percentage of major hurricanes has increased from 30% to 40%, Gabriel Becchi, a hurricane expert at Princeton University, told the Post.

This story was originally published May 18, 2020 at 7:19 PM with the headline "Expect stronger, deadlier, more frequent hurricanes in the years to come, NOAA says."