‘Extremely active’ hurricane season in store — worse than first thought, experts say

Two months into hurricane season and experts at Colorado State University are revising their predictions for the worse, saying the Atlantic coast is looking down the barrel of an “extremely active” hurricane season — not just an “above-average” one.

CSU’s tropical meteorology team now expects at least 24 named storms this season, not 16 as they announced in April. Half will be hurricanes, five of which will grow to be “major,” category 3 or above — all predicted to arrive in the middle of a pandemic that’s already altered emergency playbooks everywhere.

There haven’t been any major hurricanes yet, meaning five major hurricanes are likely still in store, according to the CSU team’s forecast. The season starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. With four months left, a lot can happen.

Heat and wind patterns are largely to blame for the team’s upgraded predictions. The Atlantic’s surface is hot, the fourth hottest it’s been since 1982. Strong winds can hamper storm development, but wind shears have been mild across the Atlantic and Caribbean, doing little to prevent storm formation.

Conditions are similar to some of the most active years in the past, including 2005, when Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf, and 2017, the year of Hurricane Irma, said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted between 13 to 19 named storms for the 2020 season back in May. At the time, the lead forecaster said conditions in the Atlantic could create a “possibly extremely active” season, the News & Observer reported.

Officials say the coronavirus has complicated emergency plans.

Unlike decades past, evacuees are being told to avoid emergency shelters. Officials worry doing so could cause COVID-19 outbreaks.

Instead, they say go to a friend or family member’s home somewhere far from the storm.

Emergency managers also recommend the public have a hurricane kit packed and at the ready, complete with masks, cleaning supplies and disinfectant.

“Social distancing and other CDC guidance to keep you safe from COVID-19 may impact the disaster preparedness plan you had in place, including what is in your go-kit, evacuation routes, shelters and more,” Carlos Castillo with the Federal Emergency Management Agency said.

This story was originally published August 5, 2020 at 5:04 PM.