Trump impeachment trial: How many senators will vote to convict? What oddsmakers say
Former President Donald Trump made history last month, becoming the first president to be impeached twice.
But as his second impeachment trial is set to begin Tuesday, oddsmakers say it is unlikely he will be convicted on charges that he incited an insurrection prior to the Jan. 6 attack at the U.S. Capitol, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed Congress as lawmakers were working to certify then-President-elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory.
It will take a supermajority of 67 votes in the Senate to convict Trump; anything below that number will lead to an acquittal. If all 50 Democrat senators vote to convict Trump, 17 Republicans will need to do the same in order for the former president to be convicted.
President Andrew Johnson and President Bill Clinton were both impeached in the House during their time in the White House — and subsequently acquitted in the Senate. After his first impeachment, Trump was acquitted in early 2020, with Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah the lone Republican who voted to remove him from office.
If Trump is convicted, the Senate can then vote to bar him from ever holding federal office in the future. That vote would require just a simple majority.
Here’s more on what oddsmakers say about the impeachment trial.
How many will vote to convict — and will Trump be acquitted?
The over/under for conviction votes is 54.5, according to SportsBettingDime, BetOnline.ag and SportsBetting.ag.
Because that number falls so far under the 67-vote threshold, oddsmakers view chances of a conviction as slim.
Odds of the Senate failing to convict Trump fall at -2500, implying a 96.15% chance of an acquittal, according to SportsBettingDime. It’s even less likely according to SportsBetting.ag, whose -3000 odds imply a 96.77% chance of an acquittal.
Trump’s best odds for acquittal can be found at BetOnline.ag, which gives the former commander-in-chief an 98% chance of evading conviction.
During a Jan. 26 vote, all but five Republican senators voted that the upcoming impeachment trial was unconstitutional because Trump is no longer in office — signaling strong opposition from many GOP senators.
Democrats, however, have argued there is precedent for holding an impeachment trial after leaving office. Secretary of War William Belknap was tried in 1876 after he resigned, NBC News reports.
The vote on whether to convict or acquit Trump will likely occur after Feb. 14, according to SportsBetting.ag and BetOnline. Both show odds of -400, implying an 80% chance a vote will not occur until Monday at the earliest.
Some lawmakers say the trial “could last roughly a week,” The Hill reported. Trump’s first impeachment trial, which led to him being acquitted, lasted nearly three weeks.
The trial is set to start in the U.S. Senate at 1 p.m. EST. It’s expected to begin with up to four hours of debate and a vote on whether the trial is constitutional given Trump no longer holds office, The New York Times reports.
This story was originally published February 9, 2021 at 10:00 AM with the headline "Trump impeachment trial: How many senators will vote to convict? What oddsmakers say."