Democrats' Chances of Flipping House as GOP Southern States Redraw Maps

Democrats' chances of flipping a majority of seats in the House of Representatives have slipped in prediction markets as several Republican-led states across the South have redrawn their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats have been optimistic about their chances of retaking control of the House in November. But the Supreme Court's decision in Callais v. Louisiana, striking down a second majority-Black district in Louisiana, has empowered other conservative states to redraw their congressional maps, throwing a last-minute wrench into Democrats' hopes for the midterms.

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket still favor Democrats to take control of the House in November, but their chances have dwindled following numerous redistricting blows in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Tennessee and Virginia that could allow Republicans to flip several seats based on redistricting alone.

Democrats had a 74 percent chance of flipping the House on Kalshi as of Wednesday afternoon, down from 86 percent one month earlier, on April 13. On Polymarket, Democrats' chances fell from 87 percent at the start of April to 80 percent on Wednesday.

This is a breaking news article. Updates will follow.

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This story was originally published May 13, 2026 at 12:35 PM.