James Talarico's Chances Against Cornyn vs. Paxton a Week Before Runoff

Democrat James Talarico is in striking distance of flipping Texas, according to a new poll of the Lone Star State's 2026 Senate race released ahead of the Republican runoff between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Democrats believe a favorable national environment, a weakened GOP nominee and reversion among Hispanic and Latino voters that shifted rightward in 2024 could create a perfect storm for them to flip Texas in the midterm elections. Texas has been a site of Democratic ambitions for several election cycles, but Republicans have held onto their iron grip of the state. However, the new poll from Texas Southern University suggests that grip could be slipping ahead of the midterms.

Talarico won his Democratic primary in early March, but Cornyn and Paxton are headed to a runoff in the Republican primary on May 26.

James Talarico vs. John Cornyn, Ken Paxton: What New Poll Found

The new poll, which surveyed 1,223 likely voters from April 22 to May 6, suggests Republicans are set for a competitive race against Talarico regardless of whether Cornyn and Paxton prevail in the GOP runoff.

Cornyn held a single-point lead, receiving 45 percent support compared to Talarico's 44 percent in the general election matchup, according to the poll. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 3 percent, while 8 percent were still unsure of who they would support.

Paxton and Talarico were tied, each holding 45 percent support in the new poll. In that matchup, Brown's support dropped to 2 percent, while 8 percent were still not sure who they would vote for in November.

The poll signals that the race is likely to be close and that undecided voters will be key in its final outcome. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Mark Jones, one of the authors of the poll, told Newsweek on Monday that it reflects “collateral damage” stemming from the Republican runoff.

“One of the negative ramifications of this very bloody primary is that Paxton and Cornyn have essentially done Democrats’ dirty work for them by selling each others’ reputations and images,” he said.

The eventual nominee will, however, have six months to rebuild bridges within the party and improve their image ahead of the general election, Jones said, noting Talarico has not “borne the full front of the Republican onslaught that he will receive by November.”

Cornyn’s campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak told Newsweek that Paxton would be a risk for Republicans in November.

"Senator John Cornyn will defeat James Talarico and give down ballot Republicans a strong top of the ticket in November. Ken Paxton has a realistic chance to lose a statewide race for the Texas GOP for the first time since 1994 and jeopardize Trump's agenda for his final two years in office," he said.

Newsweek reached out to Paxton and Talarico's campaigns for comment via email.

What Do Other Polls, Prediction Markets Show About Texas Senate Race?

A recent University of Texas/YouGov poll showed Talarico with a lead over both Republican candidates. He received 40 percent support against Cornyn's 33 percent and 42 percent against Paxton's 34 percent. It polled 1,200 registered voters from April 1-20.

A Slingshot Strategies/Texas Public Opinion Research survey showed Talarico ahead of Paxton (46 percent to 41 percent) and also ahead of Cornyn (44 percent to 41 percent). It polled 1,018 likely voters from April 17-20.

Early polling is subject to change over the summer and into the fall, but it does have key implications for party's investments in the state. Talarico's strong polling numbers could mean both parties are more likely to spend money in Texas, an expensive state due to the number of large media markets.

Prediction markets still slightly favor Republicans, who held a 53 percent chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket of holding onto the seat in November.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Paxton Challenges Cornyn: What to Know About GOP Runoff

Cornyn has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002 but has drawn criticism from parts of the Republican base over his support for a 2022 bipartisan gun‑safety bill and past comments about President Donald Trump.

He is viewed as a more traditional Republican. In 2023, he said he did not believe Trump would be able to win the 2024 presidential election.

"I think President Trump's time has passed him by," he said in remarks reported by The Houston Chronicle.

Paxton heads into the runoff with strong backing from the party's more conservative supporters and Trump-aligned voters.

But many in the Republican Party do not believe he would be as strong of a candidate against Talarico as some view Cornyn as a candidate more capable of holding up a coalition between Hispanic voters and suburban voters in a difficult national environment for the party.

Paxton also has some legal baggage tied to his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House on articles including bribery and the abuse of public trust. The impeachment investigation stemmed from a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement, involving several of Paxton’s former aides who said they were fired after accusing him of accepting bribes and other misconduct. The attorney general has denied any wrongdoing and urged his supporters to protest outside the statehouse.

He was acquitted in the Texas Senate. The attorney general has described the impeachment as a "weaponization of our political system was designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence, and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment."

Jones said that while Paxton may have a slight advantage, turnout will be key, adding, "Where this race will be decided is in terms of mobilization and turnout."

If Cornyn loses, he would become the second sitting Republican senator to lose renomination to a more MAGA-aligned primary challenger in the midterms so far after Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana failed to advance to a runoff over the weekend. Incumbent senators rarely lose renomination, so two losing in a single cycle would be a historic anomaly.

What Do Polls Show?

Below is a look at what recent polls show about the Texas runoff between Cornyn and Paxton.

• Peak Insights showed Cornyn with 47 percent and Paxton with 46 percent in the Republican runoff. It surveyed 800 likely voters from May 2-5.
• Remington showed Paxton with 47 percent and Cornyn with 36 percent support. It surveyed 1,810 likely voters from May 3-5.
• The University of Houston poll showed Paxton with 48 percent and Cornyn with 45 percent. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters from April 28 to May 1.

Paxton is favored in prediction markets, holding a 62 percent chance on Kalshi and a 63 percent chance on Polymarket of unseating the incumbent Republican senator.

Has Donald Trump Endorsed in Texas Runoff?

Trump’s endorsement remains powerful in Republican primaries, but he has not made his pick between Cornyn and Paxton, despite earlier teasing that he would back one of them after the primary in March.

"Both John and Ken ran great races, but not good enough. Now, this one, must be PERFECT! My Endorsements within the Republican Party have been virtually insurmountable! It is such an honor to realize and say that almost everyone I Endorse WINS, and wins by a lot, especially in Texas!" he wrote to Truth Social on March 4.

The question of an endorsement will hang over the race until Tuesday, Jones said.

“It is theoretically possible we could see an endorsement late into the early voting cycle or as late as Election Day,” he said. “Although, because of the risk entailed, I think it’s less and less likely.”

Democrats Hope 2026 Fulfills Texas Dream

Democrats have long hoped that Texas, the largest Republican-leaning state, would become more competitive due to blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston.

At the presidential level, that played out throughout the 2010s. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to nine points in 2016 to under six points in 2020. Democrats were able to make some races close in Texas, including the 2018 Senate race between GOP Senator Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O'Rourke.

But Democrats have consistently fallen short in Texas and lost ground in 2024, when Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points-the strongest showing in more than a decade. His strong performance was bolstered by his inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters, a critical voting bloc in Texas who drifted rightward in the most recent cycle. A recent Pew Research Center poll found that only 66 percent of Hispanic voters who cast their ballots for Trump in 2024 still approve of him, a bullish sign for the party.

Democrats believe Texas has the potential to become competitive in 2026 as Trump's national approval rating slips, and as Democratic candidates overperform expectations in special elections across the country.

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This story was originally published May 18, 2026 at 11:42 AM.