America's Emergency Oil Reserve Is Shrinking Fast

America's oil stockpiles are shrinking rapidly, with U.S. crude inventories posting consecutive weekly declines, exports surging and the country drawing down from its emergency supplies to offset the impact of the war with Iran on global energy markets.

According to recently released figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), total crude inventories fell by 17.8 million barrels for the week ending May 15. The record drop follows several weeks of similarly steep declines that have brought total stocks (including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) to their lowest level in almost a year.

As analysts told Newsweek, the declines are eroding a critical safety buffer designed to protect the U.S.-and the prices consumers pay at the bump-during major supply shocks, and will offer the country less flexibility to respond if conditions deteriorate further.

Since the beginning of the war on February 28, the closure of the Hormuz Strait-through which around one-fifth of the world's oil previously passed-has pushed global oil prices to multi-year highs and led to what the director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has called the "largest energy crisis in history."

And in the U.S., drivers are facing significantly higher costs, with gas prices having risen around 50 percent to an average over $4.50 per gallon, and other downstream products like jet fuel facing comparable spikes. And experts believe the drawdown of U.S. inventories could put further upward pressure on prices going into the summer season.

Where Is America's Oil Going?

America's oil inventories increased gradually during the first year of President Donald Trump's second term, in line with the inaugural pledge to "fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top."

However, according to the EIA's latest Petroleum Status report, consecutive weekly drops have pulled stockpiles back down to June 2025 levels.

At 445 million barrels, excluding those in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the agency said that U.S. crude oil inventories are around 2 percent below the five-year average for this time of the year. Distillate inventories-including petroleum products such as diesel fuel and heating oil-have dropped even further below their typical levels.

"To quote the Carpenters, ‘We've Only Just Begun,'" said energy analyst Tom Kloza, who told Newsweek that the figures are likely to "spark concern."

Kloza, chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil, added that industry observers appeared to be "ignoring the amber lights" regarding the potential impact on gas and diesel prices in the U.S.

And according to Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, the current pace of drawdown means crude inventories are on track to dip below 400 million barrels in nine weeks for the first time since 2014. By that point, he told Newsweek, countries in East Asia and Europe will be "scraping the bottom of the tank," requiring more exports to be shipped from the U.S. and further hastening the domestic declines.

"Inventory drawdowns have acted as shock absorbers so far, helping to prevent oil prices from soaring even higher," said Bob McNally, founder and president of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. "But as those inventories drop to operational minimum levels this summer, that shock absorber effect will wear off.

"Going forward, the Hormuz supply loss will have to be met by demand reductions, which require even larger oil prices."

Trump Taps Strategic Reserves After Criticizing Biden for It

Much of the recent decline has been a result of the U.S. releasing supplies from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). In March, the Trump administration announced that it would be freeing up around 172 million barrels from the SPR over a period of 120 days as part of a global push to "lower energy prices."

Trump has defended the move as necessary to blunt the economic impact of the conflict, saying the U.S. can refill the reserve later when prices fall, but this mirrors policies he once criticized his predecessor for carrying out.

In 2022, President Joe Biden ordered the largest release in the SPR's history-about 180 million barrels-to combat soaring fuel prices following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At the time, Trump and other Republicans argued that the reserve should be held for emergencies rather used to manage prices and called Biden's move a "futile attempt to reduce oil and gasoline prices."

Now, facing a wartime supply shock and rising fuel costs, the Trump administration has turned to the same tool-albeit in a different geopolitical context.

"Both Presidents Biden and Trump have used it to put near term downward pressure on domestic gasoline/diesel/fuel prices," economist and international trade expert Willy C. Shih told Newsweek. "But as we can see, we can go through that oil pretty quickly with an impact on pricing that hasn't really felt that significant to most consumers.

"In fact, we could drain most of the reserve if we don't resolve the Persian Gulf situation pretty soon."

U.S. Steps in With Record Exports

And with the energy crisis proving even more acute in Asia and Europe, the U.S. has stepped in to stabilize global markets by boosting exports to record levels in recent weeks.

That has drawn criticism from some who argue that the emergency supplies should be kept ashore and used to curb the spike in domestic prices.

“Why would we be sending our oil overseas when Americans are getting fleeced at the pump?” Democratic Representative Ro Khanna said on Fox News in April while discussing his legislation that would ban exports when gas prices exceed "$3.12 per gallon for seven consecutive days."

"The problem is that oil and oil products are globally traded commodities, and the shortages are impacting Asia and Europe much more than [the U.S.], so they are willing to pay more," Shih said. "So the oil is flowing to those markets, which means higher prices for us in the U.S."

However, Shih told Newsweek that banning exports could carry significant geopolitical consequences and would "undermine the U.S. position in the world," given that the country is in large part to blame for the current global shortfalls.

"Restricting exports would be counterproductive. Global oil prices would soar," McNally said. "Pump prices in the Gulf of America and upper Midwest might drop for a few weeks, but then they’d rise even further as refiners reduced operations."

And as energy market analyst Philip Verleger said, the U.S. is the "last man standing" given that other markets have been so heavily impacted. Halting shipments abroad, he told Newsweek, could lead to a "real trade war" and the “possibility of a global recession if not depression.”

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 25, 2026 at 5:00 AM.