Grocery Prices Are Rising Again in 2026. It's Just The Start

Americans are likely to see food prices rise again this year-and while inflation, conflict and supply chains all play a role, experts say another factor is playing an increasing role: extreme weather.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that overall food prices will rise 3.4 percent in 2026, with grocery (food-at-home) prices expected to climb 3.2 percent-above their long-run average. Certain categories-especially beef, vegetables and nonalcoholic drinks-are projected to increase significantly faster.

At the same time, recent data shows prices are already moving upward. Grocery prices were 2.9 percent higher in April 2026 than a year earlier, with a 0.7 percent jump from March, one of the steepest monthly increases since 2022.

Extreme weather events-particularly drought and water shortages-are playing an increasingly visible role in shaping what consumers pay at the checkout.

Why Climate and Water Matter for Food Prices

"There are multiple factors driving increases in food prices," David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, told Newsweek. "But climate change-and in particular drought-is one of them, and these pressures are compounding each other."

Drought and water scarcity affect agriculture in direct ways: they reduce crop yields, increase production costs, and limit the amount farmers can produce. Those supply constraints can push prices higher, especially for foods like meat and fresh produce.

"Climate change is one of those inflationary factors that is going to be with us into the future," Ortega said.

Beef Prices Show the Long-Term Impact of Drought

Beef is one of the clearest examples of how weather can ripple through supply chains over time.

The USDA expects beef and veal prices to rise 12.1 percent in 2026, one of the largest increases among major food categories, after already climbing sharply over the past year.

Ortega said those increases are tied in part to severe drought conditions in recent years, which forced ranchers to scale back herd sizes.

"Drought made it more costly for producers to maintain livestock, so many reduced their herds-including animals needed to grow future supply," he said.

The strain on water supplies is already visible in parts of the country. Federal data reveals that six major U.S. reservoirs-spanning key agricultural regions-are at their lowest late-May levels in at least 30 years, reflecting persistent drought and below-average water storage

That creates a delayed effect: fewer cattle today means tighter supply-and higher prices.

Fresh Produce Is Highly Exposed to Water Shortages

Fruits and vegetables are especially sensitive to drought because they rely heavily on irrigation and consistent weather conditions.

The USDA forecasts fresh vegetable prices to rise 7.8 percent in 2026, while fresh fruit prices are also expected to climb.

Recent data shows how volatile those categories can be: fresh vegetable prices jumped 3.1 percent in a single month.

Ortega pointed to tomatoes as a current example, with prices rising dramatically due to a mix of extreme weather and supply disruptions.

"Tomato prices have skyrocketed," he said, noting that adverse weather in key growing regions-including drought and flooding-has hit production.

The U.S. relies heavily on imports for many fresh produce items, particularly outside peak growing seasons. That means weather shocks abroad can quickly feed through to prices in U.S. grocery stores.

Extreme Weather Is Becoming More Common

While drought and weather disruptions have always been part of agriculture, researchers say these events are intensifying.

"We are seeing more extreme weather events, and they are likely to continue and intensify," Ortega said, pointing not only to drought but also to floods, early frosts and other disruptions.

What It Means for Shoppers

For consumers, the result is a food system that is increasingly exposed to instability-and potentially more frequent price swings.

Categories most vulnerable to weather event impacts include:

• Meat, particularly beef
• Fresh fruits and vegetables
• Beverages tied to global crops, such as coffee

"Climate is not the only driver," Ortega said. "But it's one that's not going away-and it's likely to play a bigger role going forward."

Meanwhile, other categories-like eggs and dairy-may move in the opposite direction depending on supply conditions. The USDA forecasts prices for eggs, dairy products and fats and oils could actually decline in 2026 compared to the previous year.

Recent policy debates have also focused on whether regulatory changes could bring down grocery prices. Earlier this month, former President Donald Trump said easing federal rules on refrigerants used in supermarket cooling systems would lower costs for businesses and ultimately consumers.

What Comes Next?

Ortega said that developing more resilient agricultural systems, such as drought-tolerant crops and improved water management, will be essential to offsetting the impact of climate on food prices.

"We have to make investments now-because it takes years for those investments to pay off-into things like more drought-tolerant crops," he said.

Without those changes, he added, the impact on consumers is likely to continue.

"These are the impacts of climate change-in many cases, higher food prices," Ortega said.

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This story was originally published May 29, 2026 at 9:55 AM.