Who Will Replace Nancy Pelosi? Final Polls Days Before California Primary

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's retirement triggered a competitive primary race to succeed her in San Francisco's congressional district-pitting several well-known progressives against each other ahead of Tuesday's primary election.

Polls suggest a tight race to succeed Pelosi, who for decades has represented California's 11th District and served as the top House Democrat. The San Francisco-based district is among the most progressive districts in the country, so this race is a major test for the political left in California.

State Senator Scott Wiener, San Francisco supervisor Connie Chan and Saikat Chakrabarti, the former chief of staff to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are the leading candidates to replace Pelosi in the House in the June 2 primary. All three leading candidates are viewed as fairly progressive, though there are policy divisions.

Notably, California uses a nonpartisan primary system where all candidates, regardless of their party, appear on a single ballot, and the two who receive the most votes advance to the general. This means the general is likely to be between two Democrats in such a left-wing district.

Newsweek reached out to the Wiener, Chan and Chakrabarti campaigns for comment via email.

What Polls Show About Race to Succeed Nancy Pelosi

Wiener has generally been leading polling of the race, while Chan and Chakrabarti appear to be battling for the second spot in the general election.

The latest poll from EMC Research showed Wiener with 38 percent support, compared to Chan's 22 percent and Chakrabarti's 21 percent. It surveyed 542 likely voters from May 3-7, 2026, reported Politico.

A Sextant Strategies poll showed Wiener up with 40 percent, with Chakrabarti at 18 percent and Chan at 17 percent. Other candidates received 18 percent, while 7 percent said they were still undecided about who they would vote for. It polled 819 likely voters from April 28-May 3, reported The San Francisco Chronicle.

A Lake Research Partners survey, sponsored by Chan, showed Wiener with 47 percent, compared to Chan's 20 percent and Chakrabarti's 17 percent. It polled 500 likely voters from April 29-May 3.

Kalshi gives Wiener a 95 percent chance and Chan a 69 percent chance of advancing to the general election, while Chakrabarti had only a 35 percent chance. Polymarket gave Wiener a 94 percent chance of placing first in the primary, while Chakrabarti had a 5 percent chance and Chan had a 3 percent chance of receiving the most votes as of Friday morning.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

The district is comprised entirely of San Francisco, a bastion of progressivism, and is unlikely to be competitive for Republicans in the general election. It backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 68 points in the 2024 presidential election.

Nancy Pelosi Makes Endorsement

Pelosi, who remains influential in the district, announced her support for Chan ahead of the primary. In a video, Pelosi described Chan as the "leader best prepared to carry forward the fight for San Francisco in the Congress of the United States."

"Connie understands San Francisco, our values, our diversity, our communities and our responsibility to lead with both compassion and strength," Pelosi said.

The race has drawn numerous other endorsements as well, with Chakrabarti receiving support from Representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib and progressive groups like Justice Democrats. Wiener has won support from former San Francisco Mayor London Breed and Attorney General Rob Bonta.

Who Is Scott Wiener?

Wiener is a Democratic state senator from San Francisco known for his work on housing and LGBTQ+ rights. He was first elected to the California Senate in 2016 after previously serving on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, deputy city attorney and a private lawyer.

His campaign touts his experience working on "a number of first-in-the-nation laws, including mandating fully paid parental leave for all working parents and requiring water recycling and solar power in new developments."

He grew up in New Jersey but has lived in San Francisco's Castro neighborhood since 1997, according to his campaign biography.

He previously discussed his housing policy with Newsweek.

“People love writing San Francisco’s obituary, but every time the world declares us dead, we come roaring back stronger,” he said in 2025. “We’ve worked to make San Francisco more welcoming for business, including through tax reforms and improvements to public safety and public spaces.”

Who Is Connie Chan?

Chan has served on the Board of Supervisors since 2021. Born in Hong Kong and raised in San Francisco, Chan built her career in city government and community advocacy before winning her seat in 2020. She represents District 1 on the Board of Supervisors, which includes Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, Lone Mountain, Golden Gate Park, Lincoln Park, University of San Francisco, Sea Cliff, and Presidio Terrace.

She has served in numerous municipal roles including as an aide and liaison to the Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) community for Kamala Harris when she was the San Francisco District Attorney.

She is viewed as a progressive fixture in San Francisco politics who has clashed with former Mayor Breed at times during her tenure.

She moved to San Francisco when she was 13 years old. She graduated from the University of California, Davis.

Who Is Saikat Chakrabarti?

Chakrabarti is a co-founder of the group Justice Democrats, which has helped elect progressive Democrats, including Ocasio-Cortez and Representatives Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib. The group has endorsed nine sitting members of Congress and more than a dozen candidates ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

He also served as Ocasio-Cortez's chief of staff when she entered Congress, but resigned in August 2019. Ocasio-Cortez has not made an endorsement in the race.

Chakrabarti told Newsweek in an interview in April that the party needs to "change" or they will keep losing elections.

“The one thing people don’t like more than Donald Trump is a feckless and ineffective leadership in the party," he said.

He initially launched a primary campaign against Pelosi, whose retirement drew other well-known Democrats like Wiener and Chan into the race.

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This story was originally published May 29, 2026 at 11:38 AM.