GOP's Steve Hilton's Chances in California Governor Race Ahead of Primary

Republican Steve Hilton told Newsweek he is feeling "confident but not complacent" ahead of California‘s gubernatorial primary election on June 2, as polls show a tight race.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat and possible 2028 presidential candidate, is unable to run because of term limits in the Golden State, leaving open a race that has drawn national attention. Early polling sparked fear among Democrats that they could be locked out of the general election despite the state's reliable Democratic lean because of its unique top-two primary voting system, but more recent data shows a tight race.

Newsweek reached out to leading campaigns for comment via email.

Who Is Running in California Gubernatorial Race?

The open race has drawn several prominent candidates. Here is a look at the top contenders:

• Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who served as Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden
• Chad Bianco, a Republican who serves as Riverside County sheriff
• Steve Hilton, a Republican political commentator and former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron
• Matt Mahan, a Democrat who serves as mayor of San Jose
• Katie Porter, a Democrat who represented an Orange County district in Congress
• Tom Steyer, a Democratic businessman
• Tony Thurmond, a Democrat who serves as the state’s superintendent of public instruction
• Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democratic former Los Angeles mayor

Two contenders-former Representative Eric Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee, ended their campaigns prior to the primary.

Hilton Tells Newsweek He's ‘Confident But Not Complacent'

Hilton told Newsweek in a phone interview Friday he is not taking anything for granted in the final stretch of the primary campaign.

"I think the way I’m seeing it is that we’re confident but not complacent,” he said. “You know, we’re going to be fighting very hard right to the end because we just can’t take it for granted."

He noted that while most polls show him in the top two, they are still "pretty tight." Two Democrats advancing to the general election would be a "disaster" for the state "from the point of view of democracy," he said.

"It means that the majority of Californians who now believe that we need change-if you look at the other polling, it shows that well over 50 percent of Californians think we’re on the wrong track and need change direction-all of those people will be disenfranchised if you have two Democrats in the top two because people won’t be able to vote for change," he said.

He said he believes Californians are ready for "some balance and change" in a state that has been led by Democrats since Governor Arnold Swarzenegger’s time in office ended in January 2011.

What Do Polls Show About California Governor Race?

Polls point to a tight race to win the top two spots and advance to November’s general election. California uses a "jungle primary" system in which all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot, and the two with the most votes advance to the general election.

Here is what some of the latest surveys show:

University of California Berkeley (May 19-24, 5,472 likely voters)

• Becerra: 25 percent support
• Hilton: 21 percent
• Steyer: 19 percent
• Bianco: 11 percent
• Porter: 7 percent
• Mahan: 4 percent
• Thurmond: 1 percent
• Villaraigosa: 1 percent

Public Policy Institute of California (May 14-18, 983 likely voters)

• Becerra: 23 percent
• Hilton: 20 percent
• Steyer: 15 percent
• Bianco: 13 percent
• Porter: 12 percent
• Mahan: 7 percent
• Villaraigosa: 5 percent
• Thurmond:1 percent

Emerson College (May 9-10, 1,000 likely voters)

• Becerra: 20 percent
• Steyer: 19 percent
• Hilton: 18 percent
• Porter: 13 percent
• Bianco: 12 percent
• Mahan: 9 percent
• Villaraigosa: 5 percent
• Thurmond: 1 percent

Jonathan Underland, spokesman for Becerra for Governor, wrote in a statement Friday that Californians "know his record and trust his leadership."

"While others have spent unprecedented sums trying to buy their way into the runoff, Xavier has built a broad coalition. The momentum is clearly on our side heading into Election Day and now we are focused on getting people to the polls," he wrote.

Meanwhile, Steyer's campaign manager, Heather Hargreaves, wrote in a statement Thursday that Californians "face a clear choice about California’s future. Do they want a continuation of the status quo’s high prices and corporate-controlled politics? Or do they want single-payer healthcare, homes they can afford, and lower utility costs? Tom Steyer represents the change Californians are demanding."

What Do Prediction Markets Show?

Prediction markets favor Democrats to win the race in November.

Kalshi gave Becerra a 70 percent chance of winning the general election, while Steyer had a 21 percent chance and Hilton about a 9 percent chance as of Friday afternoon. The likeliest matchup was Becerra vs. Hilton at 68 percent, followed by Becerra vs. Steyer at 18 percent, according to the market.

Meanwhile, Polymarket gave Becerra a 91 percent chance of advancing from the primary, Hilton an 84 percent chance, Steyer a 26 percent chance and Bianco a 3 percent chance as of Friday.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Democrats on Track to Avoid Nightmare Scenario

Numerous early polls suggested there was a chance Hilton and Bianco, both Republicans, could advance to the general election as the numerous prominent Democrats threatened to split the vote.

Concerns grew to the point where Rusty Hicks, the chair of the California Democratic Party, penned an open letter in March urging candidates whose polling has stalled to exit the race to prevent that possibility.

"Despite the ongoing chatter, the likelihood of two Republicans effectively ‘locking out’ California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low,” he wrote. “However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible and I know we are collectively committed to taking the steps required to avoid that possibility."

However, Democrats appear on track to avoid that lockout because of recent developments.

President Donald Trump's endorsement of Hilton allowed him to consolidate support from Republican voters, giving him a boost over Bianco in more recent surveys.

Swalwell ending his campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations also freed up his voters. He had been viewed as a leading candidate but dropped out and left Congress amid mounting bipartisan criticism and the launch of a House Ethics Committee investigation.

The San Francisco Chronicle, followed by CNN, reported that a woman accused Swalwell of sexually assaulting her twice, including once when she worked for him. CNN later reported that three additional women accused him of various forms of sexual misconduct, including sending unsolicited explicit messages or nude photos. Swalwell has denied the allegations.

Becerra saw a notable polling surge among Democrats after Swalwell’s exit.

Can Republicans Flip California in General Election?

A GOP victory in California would be a stunning shift from recent elections, when Democrats have easily carried the state. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won her home state by about 20 points against Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Hilton told Newsweek he believes 2026 could be the year Republicans flip California because of disappointing results under Democratic leadership.

He pointed to the "complete disaster" of homelessness across the state and poor education scores as issues that could drive voters to Republicans.

"I think it’s just obvious that these 16 years of Democrat progressive governance have been an unmitigated disaster, and a very expensive one, because we pay the highest taxes for these terrible results," he said. "When you add all that up, I think the case for change is overwhelming.”

Democrats anticipate that 2026 will be a much better environment for the left because of Trump's declining national approval rating amid economic concerns.

A recent Emerson poll showed that less than 28 percent of Californians approve of Trump’s job performance, while nearly 68 percent disapprove. Overcoming those numbers would pose a challenge for any Republican. A Democratic lockout was seen as the best chance for Republicans to compete in November.

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball don't view the race as competitive, with both classifying it as safe or solid for Democrats.

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 29, 2026 at 2:11 PM.