Susan Collins Polls Numbers Worse Than in 2020; Can She Defy Odds Again?

Republican Senator Susan Collins is trailing Democrat Graham Platner in polls for Maine’s U.S.Senate race ahead of this year’s midterm elections, but she similarly struggled in public polling in her 2020 race but went on to win reelection.

The race is among the most important of the midterms, with Democrats viewing it as a top flip opportunity after former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by about 7 percentage points in 2024. On paper, Collins looks more vulnerable now than she did in 2020, but her outperforming the polls that year has raised concerns among Democrats about whether there could be a similar situation this year.

The Maine Senate race has taken another turn over the weekend after reports that Platner’s wife, Amy Gertner, warned campaign aides last year about sexually explicit messages he had exchanged with other women during their marriage. In a video posted on social media, Gertner defended her husband and said the couple have worked through the issue in counseling. But the story, and any ensuing revelations, could well see a shift in the polls for Collins.

In 2020, she defeated Sara Gideon, the speaker of Maine’s House of Representatives, with just under 51 percent of the vote despite Gideon having the advantage in nearly every public poll leading up to Election Day. Gideon led RealClearPolitics' aggregate by 6.5 points by the end of the race. Collins is currently polling worse against Platner, who is leading RealClearPolitics' average by 7.8 points.

A repeat of 2020 would be troubling news for Platner's chances of flipping the seat for Democrats in the high-stakes race that could help determine control of the Senate in 2027.

In its Senate races, Maine uses ranked-choice voting, in which voters “rank” their preferred candidates. If no candidate reaches 50 percent support, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are distributed to the other candidates according to their second-choice rankings. This continues until a candidate reaches majority support.

Collins Trails in Maine Polls

Platner, who is viewed as the most likely Democratic nominee after Governor Janet Mills ended her campaign last month, has established an early polling lead over Collins. Here is a look at what the most recent surveys of the race show:

University of New Hampshire (May 21-25, 1,250 likely voters)

• Collins: 42 percent
• Platner: 51 percent
• Don't know: 6 percent
• Someone else: 2 percent

Pan Atlantic SMS Group (May 8-18, 827 likely voters)

• Collins: 41 percent
• Platner: 48 percent
• Don't know: 11 percent

Echelon Insights (April 3-9, 378 likely voters)

• Collins: 45 percent
• Platner: 51 percent
• Don't know: 4 percent

Maine People's Resource Center (March 20-31, 1,167 likely voters)

• Collins: 39 percent
• Platner: 48 percent
• Don't know: 12 percent

Shawn Roderick, a Collins spokesperson, told Newsweek on Friday hat polls were "wrong" in the past.

"Every single public poll last election showed Senator Collins losing her reelection, and every single poll was wrong,” he said. “These polls haven't been particularly useful in predicting outcomes in our campaigns. We understand that pollsters have a difficult time figuring out Maine Senate races."

Newsweek also reached out to Platner’s campaign for comment via email.

In 2020, Collins Outperformed Polling

The recent polling leaves Collins in a familiar position-a handful of early Republican internals showed her up in 2020, but by July, Gideon had established a clear polling lead and would go on to lead every poll before Election Day.

The final polls of the race gave Gideon a slight advantage.

A Change Research poll, which surveyed 1,024 likely voters from October 29-November 2, 2020, showed Gideon leading with 54 percent support versus Collins' 46 percent after ranked choice kicked in and the ballots of voters who supported third-party candidates were redistributed.

An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 611 likely voters from October 29-31, 2020, showed Gideon up with 51 percent to Collins' 47 percent after ranked choice.

However, Collins won with about 51 percent of the vote to Gideon's 42 percent. Progressive independent Lisa Savage received 5 percent of the vote, while a more conservative independent, Max Linn, received less than 2 percent. Democrats believe the race may have been closer had ranked choice been involved, but that proved irrelevant as Collins won an outright majority.

Maine is generally seen as a more difficult state to poll because of its independent electorate and large rural population, in addition to its use of ranked-choice voting.

Polls in 2020 generally showed Gideon within the margin of error, and the notion that Collins was ever way behind was "somewhat oversold," James Melcher, professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington, told Newsweek, noting that Maine can be a difficult state to poll.

"Because Maine is such a ticket-splitting state, it can be harder to predict in polling than some places can be,” Melcher said. “Collins and Barack Obama each carried Maine by double digits in 2008, and that’s the best example of the ticket splitting we see in Maine. Up until 2020, Collins got a lot of crossover support like that."

It's been harder for to maintain that support in the Trump era, which has been marked by heightened political polarization. But Collins ran a "more effective" campaign than Gideon despite the Democratic challenger's financial advantage in 2020, Melcher said.

Collins' late ad campaign, highlighting support from popular retired Maine journalist Bill Green, may also have boosted her, he said.

Platner has an advantage in that he is from the rural, northern Maine town of Sullivan, while Gideon was from Freeport, a town near the liberal bastion of Portland, Melcher said.

"I don’t…but some Mainers think of Caribou as more ‘authentically Maine' than Freeport," he said.

Dan Shea, professor of political science at Colby College, told Newsweek that Collins was able to outperform polls in 2020 because undecided Democrats and independents broke her way.

"It’s one of the last states to have a good number of split-ticket voters," he said.

Ranked choice also makes the state difficult to poll, as pollsters would need to know the second choice from the small segment of the electorate backing third-party and independent candidates to accurately gauge how they might break in the general.

"If the leading candidates are nearing a majority, you might be looking into the voting preference of, say, 30 respondents,” he said. “You can’t make assumptions from a handful of respondents."

But 2026 is still a different environment compared to 2020, he said, pointing to an influx of left-leaning voters in southern Maine and frustration about affordability among some Trump voters.

"When they drive by gas stations, they hang their heads,” he said. “But Democrats are pumped. They are locked and loaded, poised to storm the voting booths. The enthusiasm deficit is massive, and it might spell the end of Susan’s career. Maine Democrats will turn out. Maine Republicans, not so much."

What Do Prediction Markets, Forecasts Show?

Democrats are favored to flip the seat in prediction markets, with Kalshi giving them a 65 percent chance and Polymarket a 73 percent chance of victory as of Thursday.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Election forecasters the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball view the race as a toss-up.

Collins Favorability in 2020 vs. 2026

Collins has been able to win reelection in the past because of the state's independent streak, her bipartisan credentials and her personal popularity across Maine.

She is unique in the Senate as the only Republican representing a state that routinely votes for Democrats in presidential races. There are no more Democrats representing states that routinely support Republicans on the presidential level after West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin's retirement in January 2025 and Jon Tester's loss in Montana in 2024.

Democrats believe 2026 could be different because of President Donald Trump's increasingly poor approval ratings, political polarization and polls suggesting Collins is no longer as popular among the state's electorate.

Former President Joe Biden carried Maine by about 9 points on the same ballot in 2020.

Prior to her vote to confirm U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, Collins enjoyed strong approval ratings in Maine, according to Morning Consult. In the first quarter of 2018, 56 percent of Mainers approved of Collins, compared to 35 percent who disapproved.

By the fourth quarter of 2019, just 42 percent of Mainers approved of Collins, while 54 percent disapproved. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Collins faced slightly worse approval numbers-41 percent for and 54 percent against, according to Morning Consult.

She was able to overcome declining approval in 2020, but whether she can do so again could determine which party controls the Senate.

Maine Is Top Democratic Target

Democrats believe Maine is among their best opportunities to flip a seat in the midterms. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms, and Trump’s nationwide approval rating has slipped amid ongoing concerns about the cost of living and the overall economy. Only 38 percent of Mainers view Trump favorably, according to the latest Pan Atlantic Research poll.

The state is essentially a must win for Democrats hoping to reclaim a Senate majority. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge, so Democrats must flip four seats in the midterms to regain control. In addition to Maine, North Carolina’s seat vacated by retiring Thom Tillis is viewed as a top flip target in a state Trump won by only 3 points in 2024.

There are no other Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats up for grabs, so Democrats must target more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas to flip additional seats.

Republicans View Platner Posts, Tattoo as Liabilities

Republicans believe Collins can still pull off a victory.

Platner has faced controversy over the revelation that he has a tattoo resembling the Totenkopf, or "death's head," a symbol adopted by the Nazi SS. He has apologized and previously told Newsweek: "I absolutely would not have gone through life having this on my chest if I knew that-and to insinuate that I did is disgusting. I am already planning to get this removed.”

Past Reddit posts have also drawn scrutiny. In one, Platner said he "became older and became a communist.” In another, in response to a person who posted that white people “aren’t as racist or stupid as Trump thinks,” he replied: “Living in white rural America, I'm afraid to tell you they actually are.”

He told Politico last year, "I made dumb jokes and picked fights. But of course I'm not a socialist. I'm a small business owner, a Marine Corps veteran and a retired s*** poster.”

The controversies have created unease from many national Democrats and have drawn negative attention to Platner's campaign in a must-win race. But they haven't sunk his chances, according to the polls.

Melcher noted that Platner's supporters "are generally very willing to forgive them, saying they were signs of who he was when he was struggling with PTSD from his military service." That military service also helps Platner, Melcher added.

Platner has successfully tapped into the "anger" among some Democrats and has a "much more fired-up base of support" than Gideon did six years ago, Melcher said.

"Platner may pick off some disaffected Trump voters, even as he may lose some more moderate and older voters," he said. "He’s very different and it’s hard to predict how this will work out."

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This story was originally published May 31, 2026 at 5:00 AM.