After impeachment, the GOP convention will put Charlotte in the history books
Never in American history has an impeached president been nominated for a second term.
That is, until next year — in Charlotte.
Barring the unforeseen, Republicans will renominate President Donald Trump at Spectrum Center next August. After becoming only the third president ever impeached Wednesday evening, he faces a Senate trial where he’s expected to be acquitted.
“It will certainly go down in the history books as a unique moment in the history of the republic,” said William Leuchtenburg, a retired historian at UNC-Chapel Hill.
Trump not only would be the first impeached president to seek a second term, but could be the first to win one.
His impeachment came almost 21 years to the day after that of Democrat Bill Clinton, a second-term president who could not run again. In 1868, Democrats abandoned Raleigh-born Andrew Johnson in favor of another candidate after he was impeached. And in 1974, Republican Richard Nixon resigned rather than face imminent impeachment.
Even beyond America, Trump’s renomination would shatter norms.
“If Trump was able to do that, it would really be unprecedented in modern democracies — especially if he wins,” said Tom Ginsburg, a constitutional scholar at the University of Chicago.
Ginsburg studied the three dozen impeachments that have taken place since 1990 in presidential democracies around the world. “I’ve never found a single president who was able to run again,” he said.
In Washington, days of acrimonious debate have punctuated an impeachment process that has dominated newscasts and headlines since it started in late September.
But a lot will happen over the next eight months. Other issues will emerge. So it’s unclear how impeachment will look by the time the GOP convention starts Aug. 24.
“We are living in such a fast news cycle that what seems to be . . . debilitating one day doesn’t the next,” said historian Douglas Brinkley.
‘Badge of honor’
With the president calling the process a “scam,” impeachment has divided Americans into predictable camps.
The Democratic-controlled House voted for impeachment largely along party lines. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, told Fox News that there’s “no chance” Trump will be removed from office. Polls show partisanship is shaping public reaction.
“From one point of view it can be devastating. . . . How can you nominate somebody who’s been impeached?” said Brenda Wineapple, author of The Impeachers, the story of Andrew Johnson’s impeachment. “From another point of view, (people could say) ‘Look at this person. He was impeached for ridiculous reasons. He rose above it.”
Charlotte was the site of a “Nobody is Above the Law” rally Tuesday night, one of more than 600 across the country organized by MoveOn.org and other left-leaning groups.
“This will fire up our base,” said Mecklenburg Democratic Party chair Jane Whitley, an organizer of the Charlotte event.
But impeachment has helped Republicans raise money, Axios has reported. And a poll by the GOP firm Firehouse Strategies, with the analytics firm Optimus, showed impeachment actually helping the president in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
“There’s a bit of a backlash toward Democrats,” said Firehouse partner Terry Sullivan, a longtime GOP strategist with Carolina ties. “And it’s been a shift that happened pretty quickly and decidedly.”
Brinkley said Trump will “use impeachment as a badge of honor.”
“We have outlaw traditions in the United States,” Brinkley said. “Trump will frame this in Charlotte as ‘he’s the guy they couldn’t get.’ He’ll try to turn impeachment into an asset.
“The die-hards who will meet in Charlotte are going to love Trump for surviving impeachment.”
But independent voters, whom both parties covet, are evenly split, according to a CNN Poll this week. That’s why next year will in many ways be uncharted territory.
“We have a good understanding of how the impeachment is likely to end, but we don’t know how the country will be affected by it politically,” David Gergen, a former adviser to presidents of both parties, including Clinton, told the Observer. Clinton left the White House with a 66% approval rating.
“Clinton has shown that you can bounce back, we just don’t know how it’s going to play out,” Gergen said. “I think (Trump’s) going to walk away from this process wounded and angry, and he could potentially overplay his hand in the months ahead.”
North Carolina: A must-win?
The Republican convention will celebrate what Trump see as his successes: a strong economy, good jobs numbers, tax cuts and the appointment of conservative judges. It’s the president himself who’s likely to bring up his impeachment.
“Absolutely — he can’t help (it),” said Doug Heye, a N.C. native and former national Republican official. “An acquittal would be the biggest, most beautiful statement of innocence that he’s ever seen — in history.”
Next fall, Trump and his Democratic opponent are expected to visit North Carolina more than once. Republicans say Trump has to win has to win the state to win re-election.
With voters divided, no presidential candidate has carried the state with more than 50.4% of the vote since 2008.
So after Republicans renominate an impeached president in Charlotte, North Carolina will continue to be in the spotlight. In addition to the presidential race, there will be a pivotal U.S. Senate contest, a high-profile governor’s race and dozens of other contests.
“North Carolina is going to be a battleground state to the end — convention or no convention, impeachment or no impeachment,” said political strategist Paul Shumaker, whose clients include Sens. Thom Tillis and Richard Burr.
“That’s the nature of our state.”
This story was originally published December 19, 2019 at 5:30 AM with the headline "After impeachment, the GOP convention will put Charlotte in the history books."
