Will the FBI probe into his NC colleague affect Sen. Thom Tillis’s re-election?
U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis Thursday sought to steer clear of the FBI probe into his North Carolina colleague Richard Burr’s controversial stock sales.
“You’ve got obviously the active investigation going on,” Tillis told McClatchy. “We just got to see where the facts lead and presume his innocence until otherwise proven.”
Burr stepped down as chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee after reports that FBI agents seized his cellphone Wednesday night. Investigators are looking into whether his February sale of up to $1.7 million in stocks violated rules on insider trading.
Burr, whose term expires in 2022, has said he won’t run again. But Tillis faces a challenge from Democrat Cal Cunningham in November.
Jessica Taylor, an analyst with the Cook Political Report, said it’s too early to tell whether the Burr investigation will rub off.
“But anything that is adding increased scrutiny for Senate Republicans and his in-state colleague is not welcome news for Tillis when he’s already in a tight race,” she said Thursday. “Small things can move numbers.”
The Tillis-Cunningham race is one of the nation’s highest profile Senate races. The Cook Report calls it a “toss-up.”
Not all analysts expect Burr’s controversy to cast a shadow on Tillis.
“I’m not sure people will hold one senator responsible for the alleged action of another,” said John Hood, chairman of the conservative John Locke Foundation.
“I just have to think the vast majority of the public’s attention is focused on the depression we’ve entered and the public health concerns, not Tillis’s opinions about another senator’s alleged actions.”
Asked on former Gov. Pat McCrory’s morning show on WBT radio about the FBI’s action, Tillis said, “I’ll go back to what I said in the beginning, Sen. Burr does owe all of us an explanation and this is clear evidence that an investigation is underway. We just need to see where the investigation leads.”
Democrats wasted little time in going after the state’s junior senator. In a statement, N.C. Democratic spokesman Robert Howard called Tillis’s his remarks a “tired, pathetic dodge.”
Tom Jensen, director of the left-leaning Public Policy Polling, said he has already seen an effect in the numbers.
In February, he said, Tillis’s approval stood at 39%. In the first poll after the Burr news broke in March, it was 26%.
“This is, I would argue, the first really huge news story involving either of them in the last decade and because voters don’t know either of them,” Jensen said. “This episode is acting to define both of them interchangeably in voters’ heads.”
The News & Observer reported that Dean Debnam, the company’s president and CEO, and his wife have given Cunningham’s campaign the maximum donation of $2,800.
Paul Shumaker, campaign consultant for both Burr and Tillis, said he doesn’t expect the Burr probe to have any effect on Tillis. Past scandals that have swept up prominent N.C. Democrats, including former Gov. Mike Easley, had little effect on other Democrats, he said.
“Neither side . . . comes to the table without sin and people see that,” Shumaker said. “Voters are not going to make their decision on the fact that you’ve got one senator in the state under investigation and one who’s not. That’s a stretch . . . Having another investigation in Washington is not anything new to anyone.”
But the ultimate effect could depend on whether the investigation of Burr leads to any charges.
“When the FBI gets involved that raises serious questions,” said political scientist Michael Bitzer of Catawba College. “As the news (about Burr) grows the pressure will likely be more intense on Tillis.”
Hood, of the Locke Foundation, said any criminal charges would hurt not only Tillis but other Republicans.
“That I think would affect the enthusiasm of Republicans in the state and perhaps elevate the enthusiasm of Democrats,” he said. “But again, you’d have to get to that point. Short of that the other issues in the election will loom far larger.”
Staff writer Brian Murphy contributed.
This story was originally published May 14, 2020 at 4:55 PM with the headline "Will the FBI probe into his NC colleague affect Sen. Thom Tillis’s re-election?."
