Can NC Republicans win a supermajority in 2022? New maps leave it to suburban voters.
In Virginia’s November elections, Republicans won back the governor’s office and flipped numerous legislative seats in what many had previously considered a solidly Democratic state.
And those results could be a sneak peak at what North Carolina’s 2022 elections will look like as well, experts and political insiders on both sides of the aisle said in recent interviews. The governor’s office isn’t up for grabs until 2024. But all 170 state legislative seats are up in 2022, as are all 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Virginia Republicans found success by winning back suburban voters who had left the GOP because of Donald Trump, the Associated Press reported after the election. And in North Carolina next year, the suburbs are likely to be just as key to which party prevails.
“The most competitive region in this state, in terms of voting patterns, are those ‘urban suburbs,’” said Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College. “The places outside the urban centers of Raleigh and Charlotte, but still in the county.”
Reflecting that reality are the new political maps Republican state lawmakers passed last month, both for their own districts and for the congressional districts. There are almost no competitive seats in any of those maps, with most elections likely to be decided in the primary in March, not the general election in November.
The seats that are competitive are nearly all suburban districts, although some are in more rural areas of eastern North Carolina.
But for the most part, they can be found in Wilmington, Fayetteville, Greenville and Asheville, plus the suburban bedroom communities of big cities — places like Wake Forest, Fuquay-Varina and Burlington around the Triangle, or Huntersville and Matthews near Charlotte.
How to win suburban voters in 2022?
With the maps already favoring Republicans even in a 50-50 year, and with 2022 looking like it could be a strong year for Republicans, some Democrats are starting to raise alarms about those suburban districts that could be in play next year.
“You’ve got to make sure they don’t have veto-proof supermajorities,” said Thomas Mills, a longtime Democratic consultant who runs the blog Politics NC. “That’s got to be the Democrats’ first goal.”
With the way the new maps are drawn, Republicans are nearly guaranteed a majority in the state legislature. And a supermajority — which is 60%, not just 50% — isn’t out of the question.
Republicans are keen to get that, and Democrats are keen to stop them, for the same reason: A supermajority would let the GOP override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes without needing to convince any Democrats to join them. Cooper has used his veto power numerous times to either stop partisan GOP goals, like abortion restrictions, or to force Republicans to negotiate with Democrats, like on the state budget.
While Democrats will need to win basically every competitive seat to win a 50% majority, The News & Observer previously reported, Republicans could lose a handful of competitive seats yet still win a veto-proof supermajority.
And GOP insiders are feeling confident about their chances.
“We’re going to win a supermajority,” said Stephen Wiley, the political director for the N.C. House Republicans.
The path to that is through the suburbs, not just rural areas, Wiley said. And he’s not the only one thinking the GOP has a chance to flip some blue suburban districts back to red.
“I was watching MSNBC after the (Virginia) elections and they were talking like, ‘This just proves we need to go stronger on progressive policies,’” said Charles Hellwig, a Republican consultant and former Wake County GOP chairman. “And I was like, ‘Hell yeah.’ That plays well in places like Raleigh. But not the suburbs.”
Mills, however, said many policies that have been dubbed “progressive,” like paid family leave and universal pre-K, are actually popular with massive swaths of Americans and could play well in the suburbs. He hopes Democrats run ads about the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, he said, but also ads on how Republicans oppose things like paid family leave.
But first, Democrats have to actually pass some of those things themselves. Congress did just pass President Joe Biden’s sizable infrastructure package, to repair bridges, boost public transit and more. But they have run into intraparty struggles on the Build Back Better plan, which is the bill that includes things like paid family leave and universal pre-K.
“I don’t know if they’ll get everything,” Mills said. “But they’re in trouble if they don’t pass any of it.”
Where are the competitive seats?
Wake County has 16 seats in the N.C. House and Senate combined, and 15 of them are held by Democrats. Rep. Erin Pare, who narrowly won a seat in the Fuquay-Varina area in 2020, is the lone Republican.
But the county is gaining new seats in 2022 and beyond because of its fast growth. Hellwig said Republicans will have a decent shot at four or maybe five Wake County suburban districts under the new maps, not just one.
▪ House District 35: The far-northern district covering Wake Forest and Rolesville. Democrat Terence Everitt represents the area in a seat he won by 5% of the vote in 2020. But Republicans redrew the seat to now favor their party — although it’s still quite competitive. According to past election data analyzed by Dave’s Redistricting App, the new version is expected to lean right by about 3%. Fred Von Canon, whom Everitt beat in 2020, may seek a rematch in 2022.
▪ House District 37: Pare’s far-southern district covering Fuquay-Varina. It’s now redrawn to be more solidly Republican after she flipped it in 2020, narrowly beating Democratic incumbent Sydney Batch. The new version is expected to lean Republican by 7% — fairly safe for Republicans except in a strong Democratic wave.
▪ House District 21: Has pieces of Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Garner, Holly Springs and Fuquay-Varina. Stretching from I-40 into the suburbs, this district is expected to lean left by about 8% — fairly safe for Democrats, but could flip in a strong Republican wave. It has no incumbent.
▪ Senate District 13: Covers all of Granville County plus the northern and northeastern edges of Wake County. It has no incumbent. It’s expected to lean right, but by less than 2% and could be a highly competitive — and expensive — race in 2022.
▪ Senate District 17: On the opposite side of Raleigh , taking up most of southern Wake County. It’s expected to be a virtual tie, leaning left by less than 0.5%. That’s more competitive than the already-competitive version of the district that Democrat Sam Searcy narrowly won in 2020. After Searcy stepped down, Democrats appointed Batch to this seat following her loss in the House race to Pare. Batch will likely once again find herself a top GOP target in 2022.
There are also a smaller number of competitive seats in Mecklenburg County.
Democrats hold all but one of those Charlotte-area seats in Mecklenburg County.
And they’ll need to prevent Republicans from flipping too many in 2022 if they want to forestall a GOP supermajority.
▪ Senate District 41: The southern edge of Mecklenburg County on the Union County border. This district covers Matthews and Ballentine and is expected to lean slightly Democratic, but by less than 2%, making it a prime GOP target. It’s currently represented by Democrat Jeff Jackson, but he plans to run for U.S. Senate instead of seeking re-election to the state Senate.
▪ House District 103: Covers much of the same Matthews-area territory as that Senate district, just without the Ballentine neighborhoods. It’s expected to be a competitive district that leans right by just over 3%. The way it was redrawn could put Democrat Rachel Hunt at risk. The daughter of former Gov. Jim Hunt, she won a previous version of this seat in a massively expensive 2018 election that came down to a recount.
▪ House District 98: On the other side of Charlotte, in far northern Mecklenburg County. This district covers Huntersville and the wealthy enclaves around Lake Norman and is expected to lean right by around 4%. It’s the lone GOP-held seat in the county, represented by Rep. John Bradford.
There are other potentially competitive N.C. House and Senate seats scattered around the state — a handful in Fayetteville, Asheville, Wilmington and Greenville, plus some among the smaller towns of eastern North Carolina like Wilson and Rocky Mount.
To view the maps and each district’s boundaries and expected partisan leans, people can use the N.C. House map and the N.C. Senate map that have been uploaded into Dave’s Redistricting App by The News & Observer.
Switching on the “background map” button on the left side will also show labeled roads, letting people find their neighborhoods and which districts they now live in.
That website’s analysis combines statewide election results from certain 2016 and 2020 races, like governor and president, to predict how future elections might play out under similar circumstances.
This story was originally published November 13, 2021 at 7:00 AM.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this article listed incorrect labels for some districts.
