Vulnerable in 2024: Two NC representatives are targets of Republicans
A list of vulnerable members of the U.S. House shows Republicans eyeing the seats of two Democrats from North Carolina as possible pickups in the 2024 election.
First-term Reps. Wiley Nickel of Wake County and Don Davis of Pitt County were featured among the list of 36 Republicans and Democrats at risk of losing their seats in the upcoming election. The list was given out over the weekend during the National Republican Congressional Committee winter retreat in Key Biscayne, Florida.
Delanie Bomar, a spokeswoman with NRCC, confirmed the authenticity of the lists, first reported by Punchbowl News. The lists includes a label, “within 5%.”
“We wanted to preview some close races,” Bomar told McClatchy on Tuesday. “Within 5% means they won or lost within 5% of the congressional margin. This is not a final target list.”
Davis, who represents the counties furthest northeast, won 52.2% to Republican candidate Sandy Smith’s 47.7% of the vote.
Nickel, who represents Johnston and parts of Harnett, Wake and Wayne, won 51.3% against political newcomer Bo Hines, who took in 48.7% of the vote.
However, none of North Carolina’s federal lawmakers know what their districts will look like in the next election, due to pending litigation.
Competitive districts
“Last year, voters sent a clear message with their votes by flipping NC13 blue,” Nickel said in a written statement to McClatchy on Wednesday. “This 50/50 district is competitive, and it’s exactly what districts should look like so that voters have a real voice in our elections.”
By phone, Nickel said he plans to run for reelection and ensure the country gets back on track. He said he expects the district to remain competitive, and thinks having it that way is best to ensure constituents’ voices are heard.
“These two people are fighters in their community,” said Anderson Clayton, the newly elected chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party. “They always have been and always will.”
Jeff Jackson, Kathy Manning seats
The University of Virginia Center for Politics released Thursday its first Sabato’s Crystal Ball report on the 2024 election looking at U.S. House. The report added two more North Carolina Democrats whose seats could be threatened in the upcoming election: Reps. Jeff Jackson and Kathy Manning.
Jackson’s and Manning’s seats might be seen as under a bigger threat than Nickel’s and Davis’, not because of their margins of victory but because of their geographic locations.
Jackson, of Charlotte, lives in an area believed to have the potential for a run by House Speaker Tim Moore.
Rep. Kathy Manning, of Greensboro, resides in an area surrounded by Republican voters and whose district could be diluted to make room for someone in the opposing party.
“I think that both of these two people are amazing representatives right now,” Clayton said. ”They deserve to be in Congress, and I’m going to make sure I do everything to keep them there.”
Redistricting
North Carolina state lawmakers are set to redraw the congressional districts later this year, though Moore told McClatchy on Wednesday he doesn’t expect that to happen until likely in the summer.
Since Republicans hold the majority in the state House and Senate, they have the upper hand in redistricting the state to favor their party.
Clayton didn’t want to get into specifics of how she prepares for that.
“I’ll be honest, I’m not in a Republican’s head right now so I don’t know what they’re thinking on redistricting, but I do know that my job is to prepare for the worst,” Clayton said. “And to make sure that we have every plan in place for every possible thing that Republicans are going to do to disenfranchise North Carolina voters this year.”
North Carolina’s population grew enough in the 2020 census that the state was granted a 14th congressional district, and state lawmakers redrew the districts in a way that looked likely to elect 10 Republicans and four Democrats. But the majority of North Carolina’s Supreme Court justices found that the maps had been drawn to give Republicans an unfair advantage. A court-ordered map used in the 2022 election saw seven Republicans and seven Democrats elected to the U.S. House.
Lawyers for North Carolina’s state lawmakers argued before the U.S. Supreme Court that the Constitution gives only a state legislative body the right to make changes to election laws and prevents the courts from getting involved.
State lawmakers must redraw the congressional districts ahead of the 2024 election, but their leaders say they’re waiting for the Supreme Court decision to be handed down — likely in late spring or early summer.
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This story was originally published February 23, 2023 at 12:21 PM.
