Which parts of NC got redder? Bluer? Explore voting trends in 4 maps and a chart
It’s been three months since 5.7 million North Carolina voters cast their ballots in the 2024 election — but new data about voting patterns continues to emerge.
The State Board of Elections recently released precinct-level data on voter turnout, providing more granular insight into the trends that led voters in one of the most consequential swing states to select Republican Donald Trump for president and Democrat Josh Stein for governor.
That data shows where voters split the top of the ticket, which areas flipped party preference from 2020 and where voter turnout dropped.
Ticket splitting
Keeping with North Carolina’s tradition as a swing state, the 2024 election was marked by some high-profile ticket splitting.
While Trump won the presidential race by 51%, his fellow Republican, gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, lost by a whopping 15 points.
Zooming in, 380 precincts across 76 counties voted for Trump at the top of the ticket, but selected Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein right below him.
Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University, said the reason so many people split their vote “may just be as simple as Mark Robinson.”
Robinson, whose tenure as lieutenant governor was marked by a history of insulting and disparaging remarks, already trailed in the polls when CNN released a story in September tying him to a series of sexually graphic, racist and disturbing online comments.
After that, top Republicans distanced themselves from Robinson, including Trump — though he never revoked his endorsement.
Cooper noted, however, that it is also somewhat of a North Carolina tradition to split the ticket. In 2020 and 2016 voters in the state selected a Democrat as governor while also voting for Trump.
“For whatever set of circumstances, we like Democratic governors and we like Republican presidents,” Cooper said.
Flipping precincts
While ticket splitting was common in 2024, flipping precincts was not. In sum, only 75 of North Carolina’s nearly 2,500 voting precincts flipped party affiliation in their choice for president.
“There are blue precincts that are getting bluer by the minute, red precincts that are getting redder by the minute and an incredibly small number that cross over between the two,” Cooper said.
Overall, Trump increased his margin of victory in North Carolina by about 1%, compared to 2020.
He flipped 38 precincts that voted for Biden in 2020, winning over areas in Sampson and Duplin counties as well as some Pitt County precincts on the outskirts of Greenville, where Trump visited in October.
However, Kamala Harris also flipped 37 precincts that voted for Trump in 2020, primarily in suburbs of metropolitan areas like Charlotte, Greensboro and Durham.
But those gains weren’t enough to make up for Trump’s dominance in rural areas and decreased turnout in the state’s reliably Democratic urban centers.
Harris won Black voters, but Trump made gains
Voters’ choices are secret, but looking at precinct-level data can provide valuable insight into how different groups of voters cast their ballots at a broad level.
Harris won all 259 precincts where Black voters make up the majority, but Trump performed better in these areas, collectively, than he did in 2020 — increasing his share of the vote by 2.3 points.
In 71 majority-Black precincts, Trump increased his share of the vote by 3 points or more, compared to 2020.
Those gains were found in northeastern North Carolina, as well as precincts in Bladen, Sampson and Pender counties to the south.
Trump was still far from winning any of these areas, receiving 18.4% of the total vote in majority-Black precincts.
Turnout was down from 2020
As in previous elections, Republicans, older voters and white voters had the highest turnout rates of all demographics.
But one trend held true across party, race and age: turnout was down.
In the 2024 election, 73.7% of eligible North Carolina voters cast their ballot. That’s down from the record high set in 2020 of 75.4%.
Cooper said it’s not surprising that the state didn’t meet the same turnout levels from 2020 and noted that 2024 was still the second-highest turnout in a century.
“I don’t think it means much other than I don’t know if we’ll ever reach 2020 heights again,” Cooper said.
The decreased turnout was evident across all demographics, but was especially pronounced among millennials. Of voters age 26 to 40, 61.1% participated in this election, compared to 64.8% in 2020.
Registered Republicans and Democrats each had about 2% less participation this year than in 2020, but nearly 80% of Republicans still showed up to vote, compared to 73.1% of Democrats.
Unaffiliated voters make up the largest share of North Carolina’s electorate, but they turned out in lower numbers than Republicans and Democrats, with about 67% participating.
Democrats spent much of the campaign attempting to court Black voters in North Carolina, but ultimately failed to match the turnout high from 2020.
About 66% of the state’s Black voters participated in the 2024 election, compared to over 68% in 2020.
Turnout also decreased where Democrats needed it most: urban centers where higher concentrations of liberal voters tend to live.
And while turnout only increased in about 1 in 5 precincts — many of those tended to be located in rural areas which voted reliably for Trump.
