Is a blue wave coming? New poll indicates NC’s feelings about Trump

Good morning! It’s Danielle Battaglia with the latest edition of Under the Dome, focused on the actions of the Trump administration.

Did you vote in last week’s election? Democrats swept key races in New Jersey, New York, our border state of Virginia and in smaller local elections too.

We are now just months away from the 2026 primary in which North Carolinians will choose who will appear on their ballots for the November election that could have a major impact on American politics.

Republicans hold a slim majority in both the House and the Senate. History repeatedly proves that the party in power does worse in the midterms.

So where do voters stand a year into President Donald Trump’s presidency?

Catawba College recently polled 1,000 people to find out. The poll found that the majority disapprove of the president, at 52%. However, that’s down from 55% in August.

Republicans polled approved of Trump by 86%. The poll dug deeper and found that 54% of those who said they were Republican identified as a Trump supporter over a party supporter.

Among Democrats, 88% disapproved of Trump. But where do independent voters stand? They make up the state’s largest voting bloc, based on voter registration. Of independents polled, 55% said they disapprove of the president.

“President Trump’s numbers appear to be settling into an underwater pattern in the state, and when combined with Tuesday’s election results, the canary in the coalmine is showing 2026 to be a classic mid-term environment,” said Michael Bitzer, political science professor at Catawba College, in a news release about the survey. “Going into 2026 and the midterm elections, presidents with negative ratings are never a good sign for that party, which historically has lost seats in Congress.”

The poll digs deeper into topics ranging from the economy, Helene relief and using the National Guard to feelings toward Gov. Josh Stein and Sen. Thom Tillis. You can read more from the poll here.

But I’m looking at how this could play out in the midterms.

Views on the parties

Some pundits believe a blue wave is coming in 2026. We saw our first indications about that Tuesday.

Catawba College asked the people polled where they stand on congressional Democratic and Republican parties.

More than half, 53%, disapprove of both parties, the poll found. Only 40% approve of congressional Republicans, which make up 12 of North Carolina’s 16 congressional members.

Congressional Democrats fared worse, with only 38% approval. There are four Democrats representing North Carolina in Congress.

And if you look at the independents, 56% disapprove of the Republican Party and 59% disapprove of the Democratic Party in Congress.

But looking directly at North Carolina’s Senate race, which is expected to help make or break the chamber’s majority, there’s a far clearer picture of what could happen.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley are expected to face off against one another in the general election, if they survive their respective primaries.

Of the 1,000 people polled, half found Cooper a favorable pick, while 40% had never heard of or didn’t know Whatley.

What else we’re working on

• When will SNAP benefits return in NC? Will WIC money run out? What we know
• When will SNAP benefits reach EBT cards? (+ how much money to expect in NC)
• NC Gov. Josh Stein says feds, not the state, are the best fix for SNAP funding
• IRS halts free direct tax filing option used by thousands in North Carolina
• RDU braces for cancellations as FAA orders airlines to cut their schedules
• U.S. government takes stake in Triangle rare earth magnets startup Vulcan
• NC Democrats in Congress make new push for transparency in redistricting
• Former Rep. Dan Bishop under consideration for U.S. Attorney job in NC
• Stein orders NC flags lowered for VP Dick Cheney. How long they’ll be half-staff
• Lumbee Tribe of NC makes the case for recognition, again, at Senate hearing
• National Park units in the NC mountains are relying on outside funding during shutdown

If the government shutdown is having an impact on your or your family, we want to know about it. Tell us about it at this link.

If you have any feedback or tips for this edition of the newsletter, feel free to reach out to me directly at dbattaglia@mcclatchydc.com.

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This story was originally published November 10, 2025 at 5:00 AM.

Danielle Battaglia

McClatchy DC

Danielle Battaglia is the congressional impact reporter for The News & Observer and The Charlotte Observer, leading coverage of the impact of North Carolina’s congressional delegation and the White House. Her career has spanned three North Carolina newsrooms where she has covered crime, courts and local, state and national politics. She has won two McClatchy President’s awards and numerous national and state awards for her work.