With no swing districts, map with fewer GOP seats is still unfair, critics say

Democrats swept into control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, flipping 43 seats from red to blue during a wave election. None of the flips, however, happened in North Carolina where a congressional map drawn to produce 10 seats for Republicans and three for Democrats held true.

Under a new 2020 map drawn and approved by the Republican majority in the North Carolina General Assembly, those numbers are expected to change, shifting two seats to Democrats.

But plaintiffs in a legal challenge argue the underlying concept of built-in results won’t change. The map is simply an 8-5 partisan gerrymander rather than a 10-3 one, they say, with none of the swing districts that could move back and forth depending on the mood of the voters.

“If the Remedial Plan were to be accepted, North Carolina voters would be forced to vote, yet again, in unconstitutional elections that predetermine election outcomes and disregard the will of the people,” the plaintiffs argued in their brief.

“The Remedial Plan packs Democratic voters into five districts that are overwhelmingly Democratic, in order to ensure that the remaining eight districts are neither competitive nor Democratic-leading.”

Lawmakers drew a new map after a panel of three state court judges indicated they were likely to overturn the current congressional map as a partisan gerrymander and invited the state legislature to begin work on a new map. No Democrat in the NC House or Senate voted for the map.

Republican lawmakers, in their argument asking for the case to be dismissed, said the process of drawing the new maps allowed for “full participation by the public and all interested parties.”

GOP state Sen. Ralph Hise said “no political or racial data was considered” in the drawing of the map. The lawmakers kept each of the current 13 representatives in their own district.

“It’s still a highly partisan map, and it was a totally unacceptable process,” said U.S. Rep. David Price, a Chapel Hill Democrat. “It’s ironic, isn’t it, that this case was about partisan gerrymandering and yet you have the same old, same old process now three times in a row. Republicans in the General Assembly jam a map and they do it for their own partisan interests as they were quite candid in saying.”

The three-judge panel will meet Dec. 2 at 9 a.m. to consider its next moves, which could mean approving the map or appointing an expert to draw a new one. The court has blocked filing for the congressional races until further notice. The opening of the filing period is Dec. 2 at noon. The filing period closes Dec. 20.

A final decision on the map is likely needed by Dec. 15 to avoid delaying the congressional primaries, currently set for March 3.

Rep. Mark Walker said if the court throws out the map just passed by state lawmakers, there could be another lawsuit filed by Republicans — one he would be a part of.

“Fundamentally, the Supreme Court needs to weigh in on this. This should not be determined on the judicial side. People vote for the state’s legislature to draw the map,” Walker said.

The Supreme Court heard the North Carolina partisan gerrymander case and said it was not for the federal courts to decide such cases.

“Eric Holder and these lawsuit people, they’re just raising money to really go against the will of the voter in particular states and try to go on the judicial side instead of what the state legislatures have decided,” Walker said. Holder, a former U.S. attorney general under President Barack Obama, is chairman of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which is backing the lawsuit in North Carolina and similar ones in other states.

Marina Jenkins, the group’s litigation director, said both the process of creating districts and the resulting map should be “fair and reflect the will of the voters.” She said neither measures up in this case.

“It should be meaningful where the map reflects the will of the voter and is responsive to voters’ changing needs. Part of what we’ve seen is packing Democratic voters in a small number of districts and then cracking them everywhere else so that you still have a map that is gerrymandered, where all of the districts are extreme partisan outliers,” she said.

Only one of North Carolina’s 13 congressional districts has a Democratic vote share between 45% and 55% as measured by 10 statewide races between 2010 and 2016, according to a chart provided by the plaintiffs in their brief.

The chart shows each of the 1,000 congressional maps produced by Jowei Chen, a professor at the University of Michigan. (State lawmakers used one of Chen’s maps to redraw state legislative districts earlier this year.) The red dot shows where the 2020 map passed by state lawmakers falls within the band of Chen’s maps and where it fits for Democratic vote share.

“The chart reveals that at least 10 of 13 districts are extreme partisan outliers — they are more extreme in partisanship than their corresponding district in over 94% of the simulations. And remarkably, 9 of 13 districts are outliers above the 97.9% level,” the plaintiffs argue in their brief to the court.

Who’s keeping their voters?

The two districts that are likely to flip from Republican to Democrat are currently held by Walker and Rep. George Holding.

Walker, a member of Republican House leadership, is in his third term representing the 6th Congressional District, which currently includes parts or all of Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Guilford, Lee, Person, Randolph and Rockingham counties. Walker won re-election with 56% of the vote in 2018.

Walker may not have endeared himself to leaders of the legislature in 2014, when he defeated Phil Berger Jr. in the Republican primary runoff though Berger had gotten the most votes in the initial primary. Berger is the son of Phil Berger Sr., the Republican leader of the North Carolina Senate.

“Do I think there was a little bit of shade thrown our way when you take the most Democratic (parts) from Ted Budd’s district, Virginia Foxx’s district and my district and put it in one district? It could be a coincidence, but I don’t know,” Walker said. “But I’m not crying about it. I’m not jumping up and down about it.”

Under the new map, the district includes all of Walker’s home county of Guilford as well as part of Forsyth County. North Carolina A&T’s campus in Greensboro will no longer be split among congressional districts, eliminating one of the state’s more blatant examples of gerrymandering.

The new 6th district has the smallest population overlap with current districts, according to data compiled by Elizabeth Sbrocco, a marine biologist from Durham County who said she is a “political hobbyist with good skills” for analyzing map and population data. Only 22.1% of current residents of the 6th district would remain in the district, she found. Walker’s office came to that same calculation.

Walker said more of his current constituents would live in the new 10th and 13th districts than do current constituents of Reps. Patrick McHenry (10th) and Budd (13th). Walker could run against one of those incumbents rather than run again in the 6th.

According to Sbrocco’s data, 30.4% of residents in the current 10th district would remain in the district and 34.9% of residents in the current 13th district would remain. Walker’s office said 53% of his current constituents will be in the new 13th district.

“I’m not saying we’ve made a final decision. This is something we’re looking into,” Walker said.

He said the mapmakers made an unusual choice to include parts of eastern Forsyth County with all of Guilford County in the new-look 6th district. Walker said in the past Guilford was included with counties such as Randolph, Rockingham and Alamance to create a congressional district.

“I didn’t understand the logic behind that,” he said.

The two Republicans keeping the most current constituents, according to Sbrocco’s data, would be two former members of the legislature who only recently made the jump to Congress, Reps. Greg Murphy and Dan Bishop.

Challengers wait, too

Holding, in his fourth term in Congress, represents a district that includes parts or all of Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Nash, Wake and Wilson counties. The new 2nd district would be contained in Wake County, though some Wake County residents would be in the 4th district.

Holding previously told The News & Observer that he might not run for re-election if there is not a district he can win.

Three Democrats had previously filed to run in the current 2nd district. But the new map would turn the district from a Republican-leaning seat into a strong Democratic one — making it an attractive race for Democrats to run.

Wake County school board member Monika Johnson-Hostler told the NC Insider that she is planning to remain in the 2nd district race. Her Raleigh home is in the current and new 2nd district.

“Regardless of what the courts decide, I have the full intention to continue ramping up my campaign for the 2nd District,” she said in an email. “I filed to run for this seat when the lines were not kind to Democrats, because North Carolina deserves better than George Holding.”

Democrat Scott Cooper has raised about $450,000 for his campaign in the 2nd district. His Wake Forest home would be in the new 4th district, currently represented by Price.

“I agree with the courts that the old maps are illegal gerrymanders and am waiting for their word on the new maps. Once I hear from them, I will make a final decision, but until then my goal remains the same, bringing better representation for North Carolina to Congress,” he wrote in an email to the Insider when asked if he might switch races.

Price, who has represented the area since 1987 except for one two-year term, could see big changes in who he represents. Per Sbrocco’s calculations, just 28.5% of residents in his current district will be in the new district.

For more North Carolina government and politics news, listen to the Domecast politics podcast from The News & Observer and the NC Insider. You can find it on Megaphone, Apple Podcasts, iHeartRadio, Stitcher or wherever you get your podcasts.

This story was originally published November 25, 2019 at 5:00 AM.

Brian Murphy

The News & Observer

Brian Murphy is the editor of NC Insider, a state government news service. He previously covered North Carolina’s congressional delegation and state issues from Washington, D.C. for The News & Observer, The Charlotte Observer and The Herald-Sun. He grew up in Cary and graduated from UNC-Chapel Hill. He previously worked for news organizations in Georgia, Idaho and Virginia. Reach him at bmurphy@ncinsider.com.