NC could get drenched on Super Tuesday. Does rain hurt (or help) any candidates?
In a presidential primary season filled with shakeups, weather could complicate things further.
Strong storms could bring tornadoes to parts of North Carolina on Super Tuesday, when voters cast their ballots for candidates running for local and national offices.
So will the weather affect voter turnout? And what could that mean for candidates, including Democrats hoping to challenge President Donald Trump this fall?
In general, adverse conditions can impact “voter turnout with swing voters especially,” according to a 2016 study of election and weather data.
“Voters between the ages of 18-24 are more likely to vote when the weather is warm and sunny, which could affect (Sen. Bernie) Sanders’ numbers, as he is the popular candidate among young voters,” said AccuWeather, which conducted the study.
A study published in The Journal of Politics in 2007 found bad weather tends to benefit Republicans because it keeps Democrats away from the polls, McClatchy News reported.
Also, “compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5%,” the report said.
In 2012, about one-third of undecided voters said “inclement weather conditions would have a ‘moderate to significant’ impact on whether they make it to the polls on Election Day,’” according to a survey from The Weather Channel.
What do forecasters predict?
In the Charlotte area, storms are possible throughout the day, bringing up to half an inch of rain, according to the National Weather Service.
“Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will cross the region from the west today,” forecasters said Tuesday morning. “Any thunderstorms will produce heavier downpours, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds.”
In the Triangle, forecasters say rain chances start after 11 a.m., and there’s a risk of severe weather from 3 to 7 p.m. The main threat lies near and south of U.S. 64, according to the weather service.
“The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts,” forecasters posted on Twitter. “An isolated tornado is possible.”
Earlier in the day, the same storm system moved through central Tennessee, spawning tornadoes that killed several people in the Nashville area.
In North Carolina, “the impact isn’t expected to be life-threatening,” reports ABC11, The News & Observer’s media partner.
But statewide, polls close at 7:30 p.m. So, there’s a chance voters could run into wet or dangerous weather.
