Where North Carolina’s Tillis-Cunningham Senate race stands on eve of Election Day
The most expensive U.S. Senate race in history is down to its final day.
Schedule: Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis will be in Fayetteville at a rally with President Donald Trump on Monday, capping a week of public events across the state — many with other big-name Republicans, including Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
Tillis is scheduled for events in Lexington — the hometown of Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham — and Davidson on Monday.
Cunningham, in keeping with his final month of the campaign, has not publicly announced his final stops on the campaign trail. He has been meeting with voters around the state, but avoiding big public events and rallies.
Polls open at 6:30 a.m. and close at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday. More than 4.55 million North Carolinians have already cast their ballot in the 2020 election. In-person early voting is over and absentee by-mail ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday and received by local election officials by Nov. 12 to be counted.
Libertarian candidate Shannon Bray and Constitution Party nominee Kevin Hayes are also on the ballot.
Closing messages: Tillis has made Cunningham’s marital infidelity, an investigation by the U.S. Army and his unwillingness to answer questions about the scandal his final argument for much of October.
“Don’t go AWOL, which is exactly what he’s done for a month,” Tillis told a crowd in Charlotte on Saturday about the lack of media appearances by Cunningham, a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserves.
Cunningham has continued to focus on health care, hitting Tillis for his record in the Senate, and on the coronavirus pandemic.
“Senator Tillis has become so desperate that he’s even willing to pretend the pandemic has gone away, ignoring the thousands of North Carolinians that are suffering from COVID-19 right now,” said Cunningham campaign spokeswoman Kate Frauenfelder in a statement.
Tillis defended the large-scale events and rallies, telling Politico that while there is a risk and he wants people to wear masks and socially distance “there’s even a greater risk if the outcome of this election is Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer having control in Washington, D.C.”
Tillis tested positive for the coronavirus in early October and experienced mild symptoms.
Polling: In five polls released since Saturday, Cunningham has led by between 2 and 5 points, including a Morning Consult poll released Monday that shows him with a 5-point edge. Cunningham has led in nearly every poll conducted since the summer, though the race tightened in polling throughout October.
Spending: Total spending on the Senate race, including the primary and outside groups, has surpassed $285 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
Cunningham has raised more than $47.5 million through Oct. 14. Tillis has raised $22.4 million. Outside groups have poured hundreds of millions into the race, which could determine control of the U.S. Senate.
At stake: Republicans hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate today. If Biden wins the presidency, the Democrats need to net three seats to gain control. If Trump wins reelection, Democrats would need four seats to gain control of the chamber.
Both candidates have discussed the importance of North Carolina to the national picture, with Tillis making it one of his campaign themes down the stretch.
The state board said it expects to have 97% or more of votes counted by Tuesday night. But if the race is close — Tillis won in 2014 by less than 50,000 votes — a result may have to wait.
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