In Durham-area congressional race, field of candidates could drive primary to a runoff
In a solidly blue congressional district that includes Durham and Chapel Hill, whoever wins North Carolina’s 4th District primary will have an easy path to winning the general election.
But with incumbent Rep. David Price retiring, the crowded field to replace him could mean not just one primary, but two.
If none of the eight Democratic primary candidates get more than 30% of the vote on May 17, the race will go to a runoff election July 26.
The district extends to the Virginia border and includes Durham, Orange, Person and Granville counties as well as a small portion of Caswell County.
The three biggest names in the race are state Sen. Valerie Foushee of Orange County, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam and singer Clay Aiken. Each of those three would break ground: Foushee as an African American woman representing the district, Allam, who is the first Muslim woman elected to office in North Carolina, and Aiken as the first openly LGBT member of the state’s congressional delegation. Those three have also raised the most money.
The field has several other names, too, running grassroots campaigns: Ashley Ward of Mebane, Richard Watkins of Durham, Crystal Cavalier of Mebane, Matt Grooms of Butner and Stephen Valentine of Durham.
Local ties, endorsements and fundraising
Aiken, who grew up in Northwest Raleigh and graduated from Leesville Road High School, went on to fame after being runner-up in a season of “American Idol” and built an acting and singing career, including a season on “The Celebrity Apprentice.” He also has family roots throughout the Triangle and had a previous, unsuccessful run for Congress against former Rep. Renee Ellmers. (Ellmers herself is running for Congress this year in the newly drawn 13th district in the southeastern Triangle.)
Foushee has leadership positions in the Senate Democratic caucus and Legislative Black Caucus.
Allam is in her first term as a Durham County commissioner after working for the Bernie Sanders campaign. Allam’s parents are from India and Pakistan and she was born in Canada, then moved here at age 5 when her dad worked at IBM.
Allam got a big-name endorsement in April from Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who ran unsuccessfully for president in the 2020 primary. Other progressives in Congress who have endorsed Allam include Reps. Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Pramila Jayapal.
Foushee has been endorsed by the Congressional Black Caucus and by retiring Rep. G.K. Butterfield, whose 1st district represents Eastern North Carolina and at one point included part of Durham. N.C. Attorney General Josh Stein also endorsed Foushee.
Allam and Foushee split the endorsements of Durham’s most influential political action committees, with Allam getting the People’s Alliance nod and Foushee getting support from the Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People. Both PACs have long been influential in Durham politics and their endorsements can make or break an election.
“I think the PA and the [Durham] Committee carry more weight,” former state Sen. Floyd McKissick Jr. said. “I don’t think anybody was sitting back waiting to see who Elizabeth Warren endorsed.”
Price has not made an endorsement.
Some Democrats had been waiting in the wings for years for Price to retire. McKissick had long mulled a run. He ultimately decided not to, and has not thrown his support behind a candidate given his leadership as first vice chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party, he told The News & Observer, and serving on the state Utilities Commission.
He said with Cheri Beasley essentially having captured the Democratic nomination for Senate, campaigning in the final weeks before the primary will have to drive local turnout. He predicted Foushee will have more support than Allam in areas of the district like Person or Granville counties, which he used to represent.
“It’s all turnout at this point,” he said.
Aiken has the most name recognition, he said, “but that doesn’t mean it gets you votes.”
One Allam supporter, Carl Newman of Durham, is active in the party and was one of two North Carolina delegates for Warren during her presidential run. Newman said Allam is “the kind of voice that national progressives see as wanting to put in D.C.” and sees Price’s retirement as a “once in a generation” chance to put a progressive like Allam in the seat.
Newman said he expects low primary turnout as a result of not having a closely contested race at the top of the ticket.
Turnout in a runoff could be even lower. If the race ends up a runoff between Allam and Foushee, Newman said, college students who may have supported Allam won’t still be in town for July’s second primary.
When Allam announced her campaign last fall, she said that affordable housing and transportation issues would be important as they have been under Price.
In the 2020 Democratic primary, North Carolina voters chose President Joe Biden over Sen. Bernie Sanders. Newman said he doesn’t think Triangle Democrats still fall into those two camps.
Progressive and centrist Democrats have bigger fish to fry, he said, than any divisions within the party.
“There was a moment after 2016 where Sanders supporters sort of felt like, ‘We’ve got to get into roles in the formal official party,’ and the party absorbed it. It’s not a source of conflict anymore. Platform meetings are not contentious; it’s not the same fights,” Newman said.
State Sen. Natalie Murdock, a Durham Democrat, supports Foushee, and said she encouraged her to run. Murdock calls her a mentor and friend.
“She has a long track record with very, very strong leadership. She’ll put her constituents first,” Murdock said in an interview. She listed off legislative bills Foushee sponsored, including raising the age to get married, protections against discrimination based on hair, and decriminalizing marijuana.
“She is the right candidate for a district that’s pretty diverse,” Murdock said. Issues that encompass the district, she said, include broadband internet expansion, health care and clean water. Murdock also noted Foushee’s local government experience, including serving on the Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools Board and Orange County commissioners.
McKissick thinks money spent on television ads or mailers will matter in the final weeks of campaigning.
This past week, a progressive group withdrew its endorsement of Foushee because she received significant campaign donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, The N&O previously reported.
Early voting starts April 28. In North Carolina, if you are registered with a political party you vote that party’s primary ballot. If you are an unaffiliated voter, you can choose either party’s ballot.
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