‘On the ballot like never before’: Supreme Court abortion ruling could alter NC politics
The defining issue of the 2022 North Carolina elections may have emerged Monday night with a leaked U.S. Supreme Court draft ruling, published by Politico, vowing to overturn the landmark abortion case Roe v. Wade.
If the Supreme Court issues the opinion, which could happen in the next two months, the decision would put the legality of abortion in the hands of the states. Candidates from the U.S. Senate to the General Assembly are likely to key in on that ahead of Election Day.
“Reproductive freedom is on the ballot in November like never before,” said Jenny Black, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood South Atlantic. “It’s really impossible to predict the seismic impact this decision is going to have on the election.”
Abortion could help Democrats galvanize voters in a non-presidential election year, which typically produces higher Republican turnout, said Whitney Ross Manzo, an associate professor of political science at Meredith College.
Democrats already are looking to Raleigh, where they hold enough seats to uphold a veto by Gov. Roy Cooper if the General Assembly passes bills to limit or eliminate access to abortion. But the margins are slim, said Bobbie Richardson, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party.
A veto override in North Carolina requires the votes of three-fifths of the members in each chamber. In the state House, it takes 72 of the 120 members; in the state Senate, it requires 30 of the 50 members.
Republicans currently hold 69 seats in the House and 28 seats in the Senate.
“This is what happens when we do not take responsibility or believe that our votes count, because every election has consequences,” Richardson said. “The consequence of the Trump election is that he was able to appoint three judges to the Supreme Court. Had that election turned out differently, this decision might not be hanging over our heads.”
The ruling may energize Republicans and conservatives, too.
Tami Fitzgerald, executive director of the conservative N.C. Values Coalition, said the ruling would give voters in the state the opportunity to have a say on abortion like they haven’t had in half a century.
That, combined with President Joe Biden’s low approval rating, inflation and foreign policy issues like the wars in Ukraine and Afghanistan, are poised to push conservatives to power, she said.
“I hope the public understands what’s at stake in the election,” Fitzgerald said. “The General Assembly elections are more important than ever.”
Eyes already on NC
Before the leaked draft ruling, political analysts looked to North Carolina for its U.S. Senate race.
Sen. Richard Burr is not seeking reelection, leaving an open seat in a swing state. Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is expected to win the Democratic nomination during the May primary. Several Republicans are battling for victory in their primary, including former Gov. Pat McCrory, U.S. Rep. Ted Budd, former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker and veteran Marjorie Eastman.
“This horrifying news — and Washington’s failure to eliminate the filibuster and codify Roe v. Wade to protect our rights — has shown us exactly what is at stake and it is more urgent than ever that we elect leaders who will stand up for our fundamental freedoms in the U.S. Senate,” Beasley said in a statement.
The three leading Republican candidates have given slightly different responses when asked about abortion, but they all oppose it.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday about the draft opinion, McCrory said he’s never seen such a leak in his lifetime. It’s “one of the worst constitutional breaches of our democratic process since and including Jan. 6,” McCrory said.
“This leak is a horrendous and vicious attack on our constitutional process,” McCrory said.
No such draft decision in the modern history of the court has been disclosed publicly while a case was still pending, Politico reported. Chief Justice John Roberts called for an investigation into the leak on Tuesday and confirmed the authenticity of the draft.
Speaking generally about his position on Roe v. Wade, McCrory said he believes the case is a constitutional overreach.
In a statement, Budd said the leak “was wrong and damages the Supreme Court.”
“I continue to pray that the justices reach a decision that upholds the sanctity of life and guarantees the right to life for innocent unborn children,” Budd said.
Asked by CBS in April whether he thinks abortion should be allowed in cases of rape, incest or if the mother’s life is in danger, Budd said the situation should be viewed “as a tragedy,” but “let’s make sure we don’t add more tragedy to an already tough situation.”
In response to a questionnaire from The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer, Walker said the state should “immediately move to protect pre-born children and their mothers from the abortion industry.”
“I will continue to support the sanctity of human life at all stages and look for ways we can provide the resources and support women need when facing unexpected pregnancy,” he said.
How do N.C. voters feel about abortion?
Susan Roberts, a professor of political science at Davidson College, said people’s opinions on abortion tend to be more nuanced than many legislators suggest.
Most people, Roberts said, indicate in polling they want abortion to be legal in some cases — not necessarily in every case.
A Meredith College poll of North Carolina voters released Tuesday found just over half want to pass a law maintaining the current provisions of Roe v. Wade or expanding abortion access further. About 40% said they want to see a law that severely restricts access to abortion or makes it illegal in all circumstances.
The response broke down largely on partisan lines. More than 75% of Democrats wanted to maintain the status quo or expand access to abortion, while over 70% of Republicans wanted to limit or eliminate it.
The latest Gallup poll on abortion, published in 2021, found 58% of Americans were against overturning Roe v. Wade. The public is about evenly divided on whether abortion is morally acceptable and whether they identify as “pro-life” or “pro-choice,” Gallup found.
Turnout in the midterms
Asher Hildebrand, former chief of staff for retiring Democratic U.S. Rep. David Price and now an associate professor at Duke University, said the court case could affect turnout, but “you’re not going to see much daylight between the candidates” within either party on the issue.
He said abortion will “become a defining issue, perhaps the defining issue in the fall.”
North Carolina does not have a “trigger ban,” or a law that immediately bans abortion if Roe v. Wade is overturned. But Black, with Planned Parenthood South Atlantic, said a blocked law banning abortion after 20 weeks could be put into place quickly if Roe v. Wade is overturned.
“A lot of states have already passed legislation to criminalize abortion if Roe vs. Wade is repealed, and all of a sudden we’re really hanging in the balance as one of the few states left in the region where we haven’t ruled one way or the other, and so — I don’t know if voters will make that distinction, but you can bet that a lot of national organizations looking for places to invest are going to make that distinction,” Hildebrand said.
In 2018, the last non-presidential election year, turnout in North Carolina was just shy of 53%, according to the State Board of Elections. In 2014, it was 44%.
Hildebrand said “preventing Republican supermajorities in the General Assembly has got to be a huge goal now, even more than it was before,” for Democrats and others concerned about the potential Supreme Court ruling.
Jonathan Felts, senior advisor to Budd, said he thinks Democrats are fighting a losing battle, and that “the simple reality is anyone who is a single-issue voter is already highly motivated and more than likely already decided who they were voting for a long time ago.”
“Democrats will suggest this will solve their voter enthusiasm gap, but the issue fires up folks on the other side as well,” Felts said. “Any gain in voter intensity for Democrats is offset by similar gains for Republicans.”
And it isn’t just 2022.
If Roe v. Wade is overturned but the Democrats manage to hold onto enough seats to uphold a veto, there’s still 2024, when voters will pick a new governor. Then there’s 2026.
The Supreme Court’s decision, if it’s issued as the draft portends, could put abortion on the North Carolina ballot for years to come.
This story was originally published May 4, 2022 at 5:30 AM with the headline "‘On the ballot like never before’: Supreme Court abortion ruling could alter NC politics."
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