NC Hispanic voters more likely to try a new political party this election, poll says
Hispanic voters in North Carolina are more likely than non-Hispanics to vote for a candidate from a political party they have not voted for before, findings from a new poll conducted in June show.
“North Carolina is one of the fastest growing states in the country, and campaigns are fighting tooth and nail for the state’s crucial sixteen electoral votes. If campaigns want to be competitive in the Tar Heel State, they will need to make major inroads with the state’s Latino voters, 57% of whom say they need more information about the candidates and their positions on the issues,” said Michele Day, senior vice president of the Political, Advocacy and Government Group at TelevisaUnivision, in a news release.
Here’s a look at some of the key findings from the poll conducted by TelevisaUnivision Consumer Strategy & Insights’ sales division in collaboration with Media Predict, a company that provides custom surveys, concept testing and more.
TelevisaUnivision shared with The News & Observer a presentation with key findings from that poll, including questions asked.
Crossover voters
Hispanic voters are more likely to be crossover voters in the 2024 election. For the upcoming election, likely voters were asked in the poll how likely or unlikely they were to vote for a candidate from a political party that they typically had not voted for in the past.
Of Hispanics, 20% said they were “very likely” to vote for a candidate from a different political party and 26% said they were “somewhat likely” to do so.
Meanwhile, only 18% of non-Hispanic voters said they were “very likely” while 13% said they were “somewhat likely.”
Not certain about who to vote for in the presidential race
Hispanic voters were less certain about who they would choose for president than other voters, according to the poll, which was taken before recent upheaval in the presidential campaign.
The poll asked voters who they would vote for in a hypothetical matchup between President Joe Biden — who at the time of polling was still running — and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.
Results showed that 29% of Hispanic voters “definitely” preferred Biden and 24% “definitely” preferred Trump.
Meanwhile, 48% of Hispanic voters were not tied to a candidate: 18% said they would “probably” vote for Biden and another 11% said they would “probably” vote for Trump, while 13% said they would vote for someone else and 6% said they were “unsure” or did not know.
In comparison, 34% of non-Hispanic voters “definitely” preferred Biden while 33% of non-Hispanic voters “definitely” preferred Trump. Only 33% were not tied to a candidate.
As of June 24, many recent developments in the election had not yet occurred, including the attempted assassination of Trump, the withdrawal from the presidential race by Biden and the growing likelihood that Vice President Kamala Harris will take his place.
Trump had been convicted in May for falsifying business records tied to hush-money payments to a porn star.
Not certain about their decision
The poll also showed that Hispanic voters were less certain even when they had decided how to vote for president.
Asked how certain they were that they’d made the right choice of candidate in the presidential race, 51% of Hispanics said they were completely certain of their choice. The remainder had varying degrees of certainty. In comparison, 66% of non-Hispanics said they were completely certain.
Matchup in governor’s race
In a matchup between North Carolina’s Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein in the race to become the next governor, both Hispanics and non-Hispanics favored Stein.
But once again, Hispanics were less likely to be confident with their decision.
One-fourth of Hispanics said they would “definitely” choose Stein, while 14% said they would “definitely” pick Robinson. Meanwhile, 54% were not certain or not tied to a candidate. The remaining 7% said they would pick someone else.
Meanwhile, 36% of non-Hispanics said they would “definitely” pick Stein and 21% would “definitely” pick Robinson. Meanwhile, 38% were not certain or not tied to a candidate. The remaining 4% said they would pick someone else.
Top issues
For both Hispanic and non-Hispanic voters, the top two issues of concern among a list of over 25 topics were the cost of living and inflation.
Other top issues of concern for Hispanics were the economy and jobs, health care and affordable housing.
For non-Hispanics, issues after the top two were Social Security and Medicare and then the economy and jobs.
But, in the poll, only 38% of Hispanics said they knew all they needed to know about a political party’s stance on issues to make a voting decision.
The remaining 62% did not feel they knew everything they needed to. Meanwhile, 48% of non-Hispanic voters felt they had enough information.
Methodology
The poll was conducted through an online survey of 1,025 likely voters age 18 and over from June 12 to June 24. Of those likely voters, 426 were Hispanic and 599 were non-Hispanic, according to data shared with The N&O.
Results from the survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8% for Hispanics and 4.1% for non-Hispanics.
TelevisaUnivision is a Mexican-American media company that owns the broadcast network Univision and many other brands.
This story was originally published July 29, 2024 at 12:16 PM.
