NC-1 is more than just a swing district. It could decide control of the US House.
All eyes have been on North Carolina this election cycle, but not because of its congressional races.
Last October, the Republican-controlled North Carolina General Assembly created a new map for its 14 congressional districts that ensured the state would be represented by 10 Republicans in Congress, instead of seven.
That dropped Democrats’ assurance for representation down to just three districts .
Legislators are able to do this by looking at the past habits of the electorate and placing people of similar voting tendencies into the same districts.
But when they created the 1st Congressional District, they put together a group of voters who have in the past voted for candidates from both major parties, leaving either able to win.
And that could have a huge impact on which party controls the lower chamber of Congress.
All 435 members are up for reelection in 2024. This happens every two years.
But like in North Carolina, 366 of the races are already presumed to be going to one of the two major parties: 191 to Republicans and 175 to Democrats, according to The Cook Political Report.
But what about the other 69 seats?
That same report shows that Democrats are likely to win 17 other races, and that 13 districts lean toward their party. As for Republicans, another nine races will likely go to their party, and another eight lean right.
That leaves just 22 seats as clear tossups, with a voter base that could choose a candidate from either party.
“That’s less than one per state, and North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is one of them,” said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University. “It is certainly possible that whoever wins NC-1 could decide control of the United States House.”
District 1
Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat from Snow Hill, currently represents that area of North Carolina, which encompasses 18 counties in the far northeast, and a portion of Pitt County.
Since 1883, District 1 has been a Democratic stronghold, known for being rural with high levels of poverty.
But under the new map, the district loses Pitt and Franklin counties, and gains Camden, Currituck, Lenoir, Wayne and portions of Granville, creating a new electorate.
The district will also include Bertie, Chowan, Edgecombe, Gates, Greene, Halifax, Hertford, Nash, Northampton, Martin, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Tyrrell, Vance, Warren, Washington and Wilson.
During the 2020 election, voters in this area of North Carolina chose the Democratic presidential candidate, but they selected the Republican Senate candidate in 2022.
Flipping District 1
Republicans noted early in the campaign cycle that it was an area they were targeting to flip red. The National Republican Congressional Committee is chaired by Rep. Richard Hudson, a Republican from Southern Pines, who added Davis’ seat to his target list.
Despite his efforts, the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball recently moved District 1 from its list of “tossup districts” to “leans Democratic.”
On Wednesday, Hudson appeared in Edgecombe County at a rally for former President Donald Trump, encouraging voters to choose Davis’ opponent, retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, whom he called, “an American badass.”
“My job is to grow our House majority,” Hudson said on stage, “and folks, the road to growing the House majority is paved right through North Carolina. We’re going to flip four seats right here in North Carolina.”
Maintaining the majority
Republicans are currently holding the majority by just eight seats.
And that slim majority has proven to be problematic for former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his successor, House Speaker Mike Johnson. Both have had to deal with extreme factions of their party exploiting the majority’s numbers to bend leadership to their will. When McCarthy called their bluff over avoiding a government shutdown, Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Republican from Florida, led Democrats and a handful of Republicans to oust McCarthy from his leadership position.
Republicans in North Carolina did their part in trying to help Hudson preserve the majority, and possibly advance its numbers by making it next to impossible for Democratic Reps. Wiley Nickel, Jeff Jackson and Kathy Manning to maintain their seats.
All three chose not to run for reelection, understanding the low probability of success.
Gerrymandering and District 1
Just three years earlier, lawmakers had gone after Davis’ seat as well, then occupied by Rep. G.K. Butterfield, a Black congressman who represented the district for 18 years. But he retired in December 2021, just before the end of his term, angered with state lawmakers for gerrymandering his district.
The courts agreed the map had been politically gerrymandered, and had a special mapmaker redraw the districts to get the state through the midterm elections, which allowed Davis to win his seat. But the panel of judges also allowed state lawmakers to redraw the districts again for 2024.
And that put Davis, who is also Black, at risk.
Who is Don Davis?
Davis has proven to be a moderate Democrat in Congress, who isn’t afraid to go against his party.
He is a retired Air Force veteran who returned to Eastern North Carolina and taught aerospace studies at East Carolina University.
At 29, he became the youngest mayor of Snow Hill, and went on to serve six terms in the state Senate, before running for Congress. He also works as a minister.
Davis appeared at an October rally at ECU for his party’s nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.
“East North Carolina trusts Don Davis to continue delivering results, fighting to secure the border, supporting our veterans and working to lower costs,” Lauryn Fanguen, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a text message.
Who is Laurie Buckhout?
Buckhout, after serving in the military for 26 years, retired and founded Corvus Consulting, a strategic consulting and services group focused on electronic warfare and cyberspace operations.
She grew Corvus Consulting into a $43 million business within seven years and then sold her company.
She’s campaigning with a focus on the economy, securing the border, Second Amendment rights, supporting the military and supporting veterans.
She, too, appeared with Trump on Wednesday afternoon in Rocky Mount, where he offered on stage, “his complete and total endorsement.”
Hudson told McClatchy he was feeling “really good” about Tuesday’s election.
“We’re going to hold the House,” Hudson said. “No qualms about that. The question is, what’s the number?”
