Tillis kicks off 2026 campaign season, potentially his most expensive Senate race yet
If anyone had any doubts left that Sen. Thom Tillis would run for reelection, he’s ending all speculation this week.
Around 20 senators planned to host a kick-off campaign event for North Carolina’s senior senator in Washington Wednesday, marking the official start to his 2026 Senate campaign.
The Republican’s reelection campaign has been one of the worst-kept secrets, but even Tillis had doubts at times about whether he would run again.
“Every cycle, I go through a process,” Tillis told McClatchy exclusively Tuesday afternoon. “For me, it’s: do you have the kind of support you need? Are you going to have the economic policy support? Are you going to have the support of the administration? All those things have to weigh into it.
“I don’t go after things I think I may win,” Tillis said. “I go after things I think I will win, and I think we’re going through that process.”
He added that against all odds, his team arrived at the conclusion that this would be a winnable race.
That’s a position he’s been in before.
Winning North Carolina
Tillis, 64, was first elected to the Senate in 2014 when he ran against the late Sen. Kay Hagan, the Democratic incumbent.
Hagan held a financial advantage over Tillis, and Republicans weren’t initially confident they could pull off a win, but in the end, Tillis prevailed.
He would go on to win reelection in 2020 against Cal Cunningham, a Democratic lawyer from Winston-Salem. At first Tillis, who didn’t have the favor of Trump’s most extreme supporters, seemed vulnerable in the toss-up race against Cunningham. But a scandal rocked the end of Cunningham’s campaign, and Tillis ultimately won.
Both races became the most expensive Senate races at the time, in U.S. history. The Tillis and Cunningham race cost close to $300 million. And Tillis believes the 2026 campaign will far exceed that number.
Two names have been consistently floated as potentially running against Tillis on the Democratic ticket. Outgoing Rep. Wiley Nickel, a Democrat from Cary, has already announced his intention to run.
Outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper, who wants to stay in public service but is term-limited, has also been floated, though his campaign strategist, Morgan Jackson, told McClatchy Tuesday that Cooper won’t make a decision about his future until 2025.
“I think we’re going to set the record for most expensive race again,” Tillis told McClatchy. “I would guess that the all-in cost will be somewhere close to a half-a-billion dollars, and that each of the candidates’ committees will probably have to raise between $50 and $75 million and the remainder will be the 501(c)(4), 527s — the alphabet soup of outside interests.”
Reaching across the aisle
As Tillis talked to McClatchy, he made his way from his office in the Dirksen Senate Office Building to the Senate floor for a vote. Many senators often walk in, vote and leave.
Not Tillis.
He’s often found lingering on the floor, talking with colleagues and making deals.
Tillis is known on Capitol Hill for his ability to reach across the aisle to accomplish lofty legislative goals that have at times put him at odds with his party back home.
In 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party censured Tillis for violating the party’s platform for positions he took on LGBTQ+ legislation and gun laws.
In 2022, Tillis voted to protect under federal law interracial and same-sex marriages.
The move seemed like a large departure from that of his time working in the North Carolina House, where as speaker, Tillis helped lead in 2012 the push for a ban on same-sex marriage. By 2015, however, he was working to codify rights for same-sex couples to government resources in states that did not recognize their unions.
Tillis also caught the party’s ire in 2022 for working with Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, on the largest piece of gun reform in 30 years. Their bill tackled red flag laws, mental health and juvenile records and came in direct response to a shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, that left 19 students and two teachers dead and injured another 17.
“I think everybody’s got to go back and look at that policy,” Tillis said. “All that was said about it at the time, all the fear, uncertainty and doubt that hasn’t materialized, and a lot of positive things have. Every six years you’ve got to go back and cut through the narrative and talk about specifics.”
He added that he has a long conservative record of ratified bills he can compare against anyone who tries to run against him.
Primary for Tillis?
North Carolina’s far-right Republicans have been actively recruiting for someone to primary Tillis and it’s been playing out on social media. Names that have been floated include President-elect Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump, a Wilmington native. Lara Trump is not registered to vote in North Carolina, and is expected to seek to replace Florida Sen. Marco Rubio if Rubio is confirmed as Donald Trump’s secretary of state.
Outgoing Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s name has also been mentioned. Robinson was once thought to be a top contender to primary Tillis, but nearly his entire campaign staff quit after a series of scandals plagued his gubernatorial bid for 2024. That includes allegations that Robinson made a series of raunchy and racist posts on the porn forum Nude Africa.
Robinson lost his election to Democrat Josh Stein by nearly 15 points, leaving many to believe Robinson couldn’t win against Tillis. That hasn’t stopped Robinson from polling his followers on social media about whether Tillis should be the party’s nominee and posting a message that said, “Thom is toast,” with a headstone next to it.
Tillis’ opponents will be watching him closely over the next few months as President Joe Biden transfers power to Trump. Trump has chosen many controversial nominees to help lead his administration that need Senate approval, and so far, Tillis has signaled he would support Trump’s picks if they’re approved through committee.
To not do so could cost Tillis in the midterms.
Support for Tillis
Brent Woodcox, a staffer for Senate leader Phil Berger, had some advice for those trying to primary Tillis.
“The same morons who brought you Mark Robinson now want to primary Tillis so Republicans can lose another winnable statewide race,” Woodcox posted on social media. “Make sure y’all don’t trip over all the bodies of the people who have tried to take him out before.”
Berger endorsed Robinson in the primary for governor.
Tillis told McClatchy that he’s not worried about defending his “conservative bona fides.”
“What somebody else who is frustrated with me needs to worry about is whether or not they can put somebody here that’s going to be an empty suit and not get anything done up here,” Tillis said. “It’s difficult to produce results. But again, you want to talk about Second Amendment, you want to talk about life, you want to talk about property rights, you want to talk about due process: look at my record. That’s what I’ll be reminding people, again, if I get an opponent from the right.”
This story was originally published December 11, 2024 at 4:37 PM.
CORRECTION: Mark Robinson lost the governor’s race to Josh Stein by nearly 15 points. A previous version of this story overstated the margin.
