How NC’s 11th Congressional District could help shape a national Democratic wave

A report published Wednesday by The Center For Politics said North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District could be key in determining the size of a 2026 Democratic wave.

The report, published by Western Carolina University Professor Chris Cooper, outlines how the district has not elected a Democrat to Congress since 2010, but electoral trends show that the area became less red between 2020 and 2024.

“The last three House majorities, in 2020, 2022, and 2024, were all very narrow, with the winning side getting only a few seats over the 218 required for a majority. The most recent House majority that was markedly bigger than that came in 2018, the last Democratic midterm wave year, when Democrats won 235 seats. The Democrats’ ability to match 2018, or maybe even surpass it, depends on their ability to expand the House playing field, particularly as Republicans have outperformed Democrats in redistricting,” Cooper said in the report.

A blue wave refers to the idea in which the Democratic Party outperforms expectations and could win back control of both the House of Representatives and Senate.

In North Carolina’s 11th District, the mountainous district that encompasses Western North Carolina’s Buncombe, Henderson, Haywood and Transylvania counties, challenger Jamie Ager, a democrat, is running for Congress against republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards, who has been swathed in recent controversy and sexual misconduct scandals against his staff in recent years.

Chuck Edwards’ controversies

The News & Observer reported that in 2024, Edwards found himself in trouble for using official congressional mail, known as franking, to campaign against President Joe Biden. For that, he was sanctioned by the House Communications Standards Commission.

At a May Rotary Club meeting in Asheville, a constituent accused Edwards of hitting him with a clipboard, which Edwards denied. Asheville Police confirmed they were called to a downtown hotel to investigate a report of a disturbance by a member of Congress, but charges were not filed. At the same time, he had lost a number of key staffers.

This same year, the House Ethic Committee opened an investigation into allegations that Edwards created a hostile work environment and engaged in sexual harassment. The reports say that he pursued inappropriate relationships with female staffers, including buying designer bags, sharing inappropriate personal letters, poems and texts and inviting women 40 years his junior to social outings. Many employees worried he would retaliate, contributing to further staff turnover.

The investigation into Edwards caused the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics to change the 11th Congressional District ranking from “likely Republican” to the more narrowly divided “leans Republican,” Cooper’s report said.

“I think [the investigation is] going to have an impact, but is that going to be a minor impact or a major impact? I think we don’t know yet,” Cooper told the News & Observer.

Edwards has remained popular due to his perceived “competency”, Cooper said, noting that after former U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn left, the Republican-leaning district “was scarred.”

Ager’s run for Congress

Ager announced his congressional run a year ago. Through the first quarter of 2026, he raised over $1.6 million, outpacing Edwards, who has raised $785,000. A victory in Buncombe County and Asheville is not enough for Ager alone, Cooper, the WCU professor, contends. But Ager, who is a regionally known farmer with strong political connections in the region, may be vital to appeal to rural constituents in the district.

“He’s a farmer, and he’s somebody who comes from a politically experienced family. His father was in the North Carolina General Assembly. His brother is currently in the North Carolina General Assembly, and his grandfather was the second to last Democrat to represent this very same district,” Cooper said. “He’s the closest thing we’ve seen to a blue dog Democrat in many years.”

Democrats will perform better in the midterms, according to Cooper’s report.

What about Donald Trump’s approval rating?

A new national Marquette Law School survey found that President Donald Trump’s overall approval rating continues to decline down to 38%. His approval on handling the economy has fallen to 30% and to 22% on inflation and the cost of living. Out of the sample, only 18% said the U.S. has achieved its goal in Iran and 28% said the war has been worth the costs. Only 19% of those surveyed approve of how Trump is handling gas prices.

Trump still retains strong influence with voters in Republican primary elections, with 71% of those surveyed saying they would vote for a primary candidate Trump endorsed, while only 20% would vote for an incumbent Republican Trump opposed.

Edwards won his 2024 election by 13.5 percentage points and outperformed every other Republican on the ballot in the 11th district. He also outperformed Trump by nearly 4 percentage points.

“The thing that might end up getting Chuck Edwards in the end isn’t so much as a lot of people switching to Jamie Ager, but that a lot of people are just deciding to stay home, and we just don’t have that many competitive state legislative districts out here either,” Cooper said.

In March, Edwards won his primary with 70.1% of the vote, and Ager won a five-way primary race with about 64.7% of the vote. The two candidates will face off in the general election on Nov. 3.