After a cold fall, forecasters say NC can expect ‘a little of everything’ this winter
It’s been a cold fall in North Carolina, but climate researchers say the outlook for the winter points to overall slightly warmer temperatures across the state in the coming months.
But, they say, people in North Carolina can expect to see temperatures bounce up and down and the same kind of variation for rain, maybe even a little snow.
So what should you expect this winter in North Carolina? Maybe “a little of everything.”
The State Climate Office’s annual winter outlook says it is all over the place, thanks to the fact that there is no effect from El Niño in the Pacific, which can make it easier to say what kind of winter is in store for The Old North State.
“This means seeing some warm and cool periods, some wet and dry ones, and probably even some snow, although predicting when, where, and how much is impossible to tell at this point,” the Climate Office predicts from North Carolina State University.
“Overall, our wintertime average temperatures are more likely to be near- or above-normal than below normal, but we don’t expect warm weather will rule the entire season. It certainly hasn’t this fall!”
The North Carolina outlook lines up with the federal Climate Prediction Center’s 2019-2020 winter outlook for the rest of the United States. The country likely will see above-average temperatures this winter and most of the United States is forecast to see about average precipitation, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“Without either El Niño or La Niña conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation,” said Mike Halpert with the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA.
This is what forecasters call an El Niño/Southern Oscillation-neutral year, the North Carolina climate researchers say, and that means “our weather is at the whims of other atmospheric patterns that change over the course of days or weeks instead of months.”
“With all things considered, this winter will probably look like past ENSO-neutral years and even how the past two months have played out within the atmosphere: with lots of variability!” the forecasters say.
The outlook says there’s a long-term trend for warmer winters in North Carolina, and across the country. Long-range forecast models and trends of warmer winter temperatures from climate change, the Climate Office says, mean this winter probably will be a little warmer than usual.
“Again, these anomalies are small — you might not even notice the difference a degree or two makes on any given day — but lacking other strong guidance, these trends mean above-normal temperatures are a bit more likely this year as well,” the Climate Office says.
This story was originally published November 21, 2019 at 10:40 AM with the headline "After a cold fall, forecasters say NC can expect ‘a little of everything’ this winter."
