Millions pour into western NC congressional race that was once seen as a GOP lock
Millions of dollars have poured into a western North Carolina congressional race, as Republicans try to prevent Democrats from flipping a newly-redrawn district that was once a conservative stronghold.
The race in the 11th District, covering most of western North Carolina including Asheville, is the most expensive for the district in over a decade.
Republican Madison Cawthorn, 25, is running against Democrat Morris “Moe” Davis, a retired Air Force colonel and former chief prosecutor for terrorism trials at Guantanamo Bay. The seat was once held by Mark Meadows, who stepped down to become White House Chief of Staff.
Cawthorn has raised $2.8 million for his campaign, campaign finance reports released Thursday show, while Davis has raised $1.5 million.
The cash has only added more energy to one of the most high-profile races in the state, where Cawthorn, a surprise conservative darling, has had to fight accusations of unwanted sexual advances, supporting white supremacy and lying about his record.
Meanwhile, Davis has been criticized for a number of graphic and expletive-laced tweets he posted on social media before he was a candidate.
Before this election, the 11th District was a “foregone conclusion” for Republicans, said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.
But in 2019, it was redrawn, and the new district map includes all or part of 17 western counties, including the Democratic-leaning city of Asheville.
Election forecaster the Cook Political Report changed its rating for the race from likely Republican to lean Republican this month, a sign of the competitive nature of the contest. And the Davis campaign says a prominent national Democratic group recently donated money.
Still, even under the new map, 57% of the district’s residents voted for Donald Trump in 2016. “This is a long shot,” Cooper said. “It will perhaps be the upset of the entire election cycle if Davis somehow wins.”
National profile
In a surprise victory, Cawthorn beat the candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump in the primary runoff in June for Meadows’ old seat.
He was further propelled to the national stage during a prime speaking slot at the Republican National Convention, and his story of overcoming a near-fatal car accident that left him partially paralyzed and in a wheelchair has been a focal point of his campaign.
Cawthorn took in $2.1 million in the month following the RNC, nearly double that of the previous month. And around 71% of the donations he received from individuals were from out-of-state, compared to around one-third of the individual donors to Davis.
“I remember at the Republican National Convention how prominently (Cawthorn) was featured,” said Susan Roberts, a political science professor at Davidson College. “I think that was probably indicative of that’s a seat that they want, that’s a seat that’s symbolic.”
The third quarter’s fundraising figures show Davis drew significantly less money from political committees other than those affiliated with political parties. Cawthorn raised $144,400 from such committees, while Davis took in just under $18,400, according to Federal Election Commission data.
Both candidates received substantial amounts of funding from small dollar donors processed through online fundraising platforms ActBlue and WinRed.
The fundraising numbers “speak for themselves,” said John Hart, spokesman for Cawthorn.
“Madison’s encouraged — I think voters are embracing his positive, patriotic message that celebrates freedom and opportunity, and they’re rejecting Moe Davis’ violent and vitriolic partisanship,” Hart said. “I think these numbers reflect a lack of confidence in (Davis’) candidacy from donors and national Democrats.”
The latest fundraising numbers reflect Cawthorn’s ability to appeal to younger voters, Hart said, as the GOP faces a “demographic time bomb.”
Davis is starting from a deficit, Cooper said, because he has to prove to national Democrats that the district is winnable. Still, he said the fact that Cawthorn is receiving so much investment means the GOP believes it’s not a guaranteed victory.
Graeme McGufficke, Davis’ campaign manager, said he expected Cawthorn to out-raise Davis because of the support the Republican candidate receives from “PACs and dark money.”
McGufficke said while the campaign didn’t receive any funds in the last quarter from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, they’ve received other assistance. And he said the committee is spending money on an ad buy worth about $95,000.
Davis’ campaign has released a polling memo from late September that shows him ahead 46-42. The Cawthorn campaign has not disclosed its own polling figures.
Mired in controversy
The race has turned negative, as both candidates attacked each other over past behavior and their records.
Cawthorn’s critics allege there are signs he has supported white supremacy, after a social media post resurfaced from a vacation he took to Adolf Hitler’s former mountain retreat.
They also point to a phrase included in the name of his real estate company, SPQR, an abbreviation of a Latin phrase often used by white supremacists, and his appearance next to the Betsy Ross flag, which has been utilized by extremist groups.
Cawthorn has rejected those claims, and he has pointed out that he is engaged to a biracial woman.
Several women have accused Cawthorn of unwanted sexual behavior, according to reports in the Asheville Citizen-Times and the Asheville-based Christian publication WORLD. Cawthorn addressed the allegations at a candidate forum in September, noting that while some of his “attempts” to kiss girls in high school “failed,” “there’s a large difference between a failed attempt and sexual assault.”
“Taken together, these are all bad news cycles for Madison Cawthorn, and I think they have all hurt him with some unaffiliated voters,” Cooper said, though he noted that Cawthorn did respond to the reports. “And they have also mobilized the Democratic base.”
Cawthorn has also faced questions about his record.
He has said he was nominated to the U.S. Naval Academy, but that his accident “derailed” his plans. But in a 2017 sworn deposition, Cawthorn said his application to the academy was rejected before the crash. And the Asheville Citizen-Times recently reported that he worked part-time for then-Rep. Meadows, despite having said he was a full-time employee.
Hart said Cawthorn worked part-time for Meadows because he’s partially disabled.
Meanwhile, Davis has come under fire from Republicans for his aggressive, sometimes profane tweets, including one where he said, “When @NCGOP extremists go low, we stomp their scrawny pasty necks with our heels and once you hear the sound of a crisp snap you grind your heel hard and twist it slowly side to side for good measure.”
The Cawthorn campaign has made a website with screenshots of the tweets. Hart said the fact that Davis raised less money than Cawthorn is evidence that he is a “flawed candidate.”
“I think the country is overdosing on rage tweeting,” Hart said. “ It’s not a way to bring the country together.”
McGufficke called the tweets “bombastic” and “hyperbolic” language, but said they were never meant to be taken literally.
“That’s their entire campaign because Cawthorn has no background, he has no experience, he has no education,” he said. “The only thing they can do in their ads is to tear down a man who served his country honorably for two decades.”
The tweets may not have changed many voters’ minds, Cooper said, but they have caused turmoil within parts of the Democratic Party.
“(It’s) not changing a vote choice, but perhaps causing people to pull yard signs out and campaign a little less vigorously,” he said.
Database editor Gavin Off contributed to this story
This story was originally published October 17, 2020 at 1:48 PM with the headline "Millions pour into western NC congressional race that was once seen as a GOP lock."
