Tropical Storm Elsa threatens NC, SC coasts with winds and rain. Here’s the forecast
UPDATE: This story will not be updated after Wednesday. The latest information about Tropical Storm Elsa’s forecast and path can be found here.
Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to lash the coastal Carolinas with heavy rain and strong winds starting Wednesday.
Elsa was located about 115 miles southwest of Brunswick, Georgia, as of 5 p.m. Wednesday. The storm was moving north at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical storm force winds — which range from 39 mph to 73 mph — extend up to 70 miles from Elsa’s center.
Tropical storm conditions could reach parts of the Carolinas starting Wednesday night, forecasters say.
The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm warning from the mouth of the St. Mary’s River in Georgia to the Little River Inlet in South Carolina, which is near the North Carolina border.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from Little River Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including coastal North Carolina. The Pamlico and Albemarle sounds in North Carolina are also under a watch.
The National Hurricane Center says a tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are “expected somewhere within the warning area” and a tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are “possible within the watch area.”
Elsa’s winds are most likely to reach South Carolina by 2 a.m. Thursday and North Carolina by 8 a.m. Thursday, the forecast shows.
The storm could dump between 2 and 4 inches of rain on South Carolina’s Lowcountry, with up to 6 inches possible in some areas. Coastal North Carolina could get between 1 and 3 inches with up to 5 inches possible in some areas Wednesday night through Thursday night.
The rain could result in flash and urban flooding, forecasters say.
The mouth of the St. Mary’s River to the South Santee River in South Carolina could see 1 to 2 feet of storm surge.
The eastern part of South Carolina could also see a “few tornadoes” Wednesday night, and the “threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas” on Thursday.
“The risk for this is a little higher close to the coast than well inland,” the S.C. State Climate Office said. “The issue here is that the tornado risk comes in the middle of the night when we’re trying to sleep. So, if you live along our coastal plain, make sure you have a way to be alerted to tornado warnings, have your weather radio or cell phone emergency alerts set up properly and the volume turned up loud enough to wake you up.”
The National Weather Service’s Wilmington Office says an “elevated risk of rip currents through Friday” is also included among the tropical storm’s main threats to the coast.
As of Wednesday afternoon, there’s a high risk of rip currents along much of the South Carolina coast and parts of the North Carolina coast. Other areas are under a moderate risk of rip currents.
A high risk indicates “life threatening rip currents are likely” and that people should stay out of the water as the surf zone is “dangerous of all levels of swimmers.”
Forecasters have said “interests” elsewhere in the Carolinas should also monitor the storm’s progress.
The NWS’s Wilmington Office said tropical storm warnings could be “expanded away from the coast” later Wednesday because of the storm path’s recent shift west.
“On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday,” the NHC said at 2 p.m.
Elsa weakened from maximum sustained winds of 65 mph earlier Wednesday. The storm is expected to continue weakening through Thursday as it moves over land.
Elsa’s path as of 5 p.m. Wednesday shows it weakening to a tropical depression by 8 a.m. Thursday as it’s over South Carolina. The National Weather Service’s Wilmington Office says winds should be between 20 mph and 30 mph with stronger gusts when it reaches the area.
“We still expect Elsa to make some mischief as it crosses South Carolina tonight and tomorrow morning,” the S.C. climate office said Wednesday. “Our primary concern will be heavy rainfall with a general 2-4 inches of rain falling east of a line stretching roughly from Aiken to Lancaster.”
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and state emergency management officials said Tuesday that residents in Eastern and Central North Carolina should “be prepared for significant rains and possible flooding.”
“Small changes in the forecast track of a tropical system can mean big changes in storm impacts and rainfall amounts,” state Emergency Management Director Mike Sprayberry said in a release. “That’s why close attention to the forecast for your area is important.”
This story was originally published July 7, 2021 at 9:17 AM.
