Cold front from Midwest not expected to bring severe weather to Triangle, NWS says
The cold front that led to devastating tornadoes in the Midwest Friday night will pass through the Triangle on Saturday but is not expected to bring any severe weather, according to the National Weather Service.
The front is expected to cause temperatures in central North Carolina to drop by more than 30 degrees, however, the weather service said.
Raleigh will experience an afternoon high of 74 degrees before temperatures plummet to the low 40s by early Sunday morning, the NWS said in its seven-day forecast.
Saturday’s high temperature is expected to be about 20 degrees above the day’s average high of 56, said Andrew Kren, a meteorologist at NWS Raleigh.
That figure is based on a running average of daily highs and lows recorded over the last 30 years, Kren said in an interview.
The last time the temperature reached 74 degrees on Dec. 11 was in 2007, he added.
Kren said multiple factors were responsible for such high temperatures in mid-December, including the fact that the U.S. is currently being affected by a La Niña weather pattern, which leads to drought and warmer than normal winter temperatures in the southern part of the country.
Risk of severe weather in Triangle low
Forecasters expect the front to produce a line of showers and some storms, Kren said, but the risk of thunderstorms in central North Carolina remains low.
After passing through the Triad around 3 p.m., storms will reach the Triangle between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m., exiting the region after midnight, the NWS said in its latest severe thunderstorm outlook.
Chapel Hill and Durham have a marginal risk of thunderstorms, which means that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, but will likely be limited in how long they last and the area they cover.
In much of Wake and Johnston counties, residents should expect to only experience some thunder, NWS said.
The primary threat from the passage of the cold front is the likelihood of damaging wind gusts, NWS advised, warning that maximum wind gusts in the Triangle on Saturday could reach 30 mph.
Powerful tornadoes ravaged multiple states overnight, causing catastrophic damage in Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois.
Authorities in Kentucky said search and rescue teams were still going through rubble on Saturday and didn’t yet have a number for how many people had died.
The state’s governor, Andy Beshear, called the tornadoes and severe weather the “most devastating” in Kentucky’s history during a news conference. He said the death toll may exceed 100 people.
Kren, the NWS meteorologist, said two factors were present in the Midwest Friday night as the front passed through the region: unstable air, which thunderstorms thrive on, and a very strong wind shear, a change in wind speed or direction over a short distance that helps maintain the storm’s longevity.
The likelihood of severe weather carrying over into central North Carolina remains low, Kren said, because the front will lose both of those components before it gets here.
This story was originally published December 11, 2021 at 12:51 PM.
