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What kind of weather can NC expect this fall? Here’s what forecasters say

A footbridge is surrounded by golden hues in William B. Umstead State Park in Raleigh. Forecasters have offered their fall 2024 weather forecasts for North Carolina.
A footbridge is surrounded by golden hues in William B. Umstead State Park in Raleigh. Forecasters have offered their fall 2024 weather forecasts for North Carolina.

Fall approaches. Have you noticed a change in the sunlight, seen the spiders building webs on the porch, caught the sweet smell of osmanthus bloom on the breeze?

On the meteorological calendar, the first day of fall is more than two weeks away. But school buses are running and pools have closed for the summer. And We know how you like to prepare for shifts in the weather, so we checked with long-term forecasters to see what Autumn 2024 might bring.

The Climate Prediction Center at NOAA foresees a warmer-than-average fall in North Carolina. Autumn begins Sept. 22.
The Climate Prediction Center at NOAA foresees a warmer-than-average fall in North Carolina. Autumn begins Sept. 22. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraction

What’s the official forecast for fall?

For that, we go to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, one of the few places government forecasters are willing to look further than a week into the future.

The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal forecast for September through December shows a tendency toward above-average temperatures. In addition, the forecast says, central and eastern North Carolina are leaning toward wetter-than-average weather through November, but normal to below-normal precipitation starting in December.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s some likelihood of wetter-than-average weather in North Carolina from September through November. The forecast for December is leaning toward normal or below-normal precipitation.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s some likelihood of wetter-than-average weather in North Carolina from September through November. The forecast for December is leaning toward normal or below-normal precipitation. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

What do the farmers’ almanacs say?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac disagrees; its forecasters say the Southeastern U.S. is in for a cooler-than-normal fall and near-average precipitation.

Its competitor, The Farmers’ Almanac, predicts a “cool, stormy” autumn for North Carolina and the rest of the Southeast.

What will the weather be for Halloween?

The Climate Prediction Center does not make long-term forecasts for specific dates and will not be held responsible for costumes that are too short, too hot or too soggy.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says: Sunny and cool.

The Farmers’ Almanac: “Clearing, drier for trick-or-treaters.”

A footbridge is surrounded by golden hues in William B. Umstead State Park in Raleigh. Forecasters have offered their fall 2024 weather forecasts for North Carolina.
A footbridge is surrounded by golden hues in William B. Umstead State Park in Raleigh. Forecasters have offered their fall 2024 weather forecasts for North Carolina. Charlie Peek

Will it be cold on Thanksgiving?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac: “A couple of showers could slow travel a bit… However, the weather remains cool to mild, so nothing to worry about temperature-wise.”

The Farmers’ Almanac: A storm hugs the Atlantic Seaboard, bringing increasing winds, copious precipitation on Turkey Day.

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Martha Quillin
The News & Observer
Martha Quillin is a former journalist for The News & Observer.
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